ArticleEpidemics2021
Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil.
Article in Epidemics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Tuberculosis notifications among children and young adolescents, 2008-2019 compared to 2020-2023, Brazil.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2026Article
- Systematic differences in TB treatment outcomes across Brazil by patient- and area-related factors: an analysis of national disease registry data.BMJ global health · 2025Article
- Diagnostic accuracy of the Cepheid MTB host response assay for the detection of pulmonary TB.IJTLD open · 2025Article
- Quantifying gaps in the tuberculosis care cascade in Brazil: A mathematical model study using national program data.PLoS medicine · 2024Article
- Ending tuberculosis in a post-COVID-19 world: a person-centred, equity-oriented approach.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2023Review
- Trends in tuberculosis incidence and mortality coefficients in Brazil, 2011-2019: analysis by inflection points.Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health · 2023Article
- Excess tuberculosis cases and deaths following an economic recession in Brazil: an analysis of nationally representative disease registry data.The Lancet. Global health · 2022Article
- TB Hackathon: Development and Comparison of Five Models to Predict Subnational Tuberculosis Prevalence in Pakistan.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- A spatial-mechanistic model to estimate subnational tuberculosis burden with routinely collected data: An application in Brazilian municipalities.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
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11 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundEvidence on local disease burden and the completeness of case detection represent important information for TB control programs. We present a new method for estimating subnational TB incidence and the fraction of individuals with incident TB who are diagnosed and treated in Brazil.
methodsWe compiled data on TB notifications and TB-related mortality in Brazil and specified an analytic model approximating incidence as the number of individuals exiting untreated active disease (sum of treatment initiation, death before treatment, and self-cure). We employed a Bayesian inference approach to synthesize data and adjust for known sources of bias. We estimated TB incidence and the fraction of cases treated, for each Brazilian state and the Federal District over 2008-2017.
findingsFor 2017, TB incidence was estimated as 41.5 (95 % interval: 40.7, 42.5) per 100 000 nationally, and ranged from 11.7-88.3 per 100 000 across states. The fraction of cases treated was estimated as 91.9 % (89.6 %, 93.7 %) nationally and ranged 86.0 %-94.8 % across states, with an estimated 6.9 (5.3, 9.2) thousand cases going untreated in 2017. Over 2008-2017, incidence declined at an average annual rate of 1.4 % (1.1 %, 1.9 %) nationally, and -1.1%-4.2 % across states. Over this period there was a 0.5 % (0.2 %, 0.9 %) average annual increase in the fraction of incident TB cases treated.
interpretationTime-series estimates of TB burden and the fraction of cases treated can be derived from routinely-collected data and used to understand variation in TB outcomes and trends.
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