ArticlePloS one2021
Control strategies for COVID-19 epidemic with vaccination, shield immunity and quarantine: A metric temporal logic approach.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Incorporating Additional Evidence as Prior Information to Resolve Non-Identifiability in Bayesian Disease Model Calibration: A Tutorial.Statistics in medicine · 2025Article
- Exploring optimal control strategies in a nonlinear fractional bi-susceptible model for Covid-19 dynamics using Atangana-Baleanu derivative.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Quantifying indirect and direct vaccination effects arising in the SIR model.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Preparing correctional settings for the next pandemic: a modeling study of COVID-19 outbreaks in two high-income countries.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Sensitivity of endemic behaviour of COVID-19 under a multi-dose vaccination regime, to various biological parameters and control variables.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and immunity waning: A modelling study for Portugal.Vaccine · 2022Article
- Competing control scenarios in probabilistic SIR epidemics on social-contact networks.Annals of operations research · 2022Article
- Adaptive SIR model with vaccination: simultaneous identification of rates and functions illustrated with COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Effects of Vaccination and the Spatio-Temporal Diffusion of Covid-19 Incidence in Turkey.Geographical analysis · 2022Article
- Evaluation of a Novel Multiplex Platform for Simultaneous Detection of IgG Antibodies Against the 4 Main SARS-CoV-2 Antigens.The journal of applied laboratory medicine · 2022Article
- Multiscale heterogeneous optimal lockdown control for COVID-19 using geographic information.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Analysis of COVID-19 Risk Following a Ring Vaccination Intervention to Address SARS-CoV-2 Alpha Variant Transmission in Montreal, Canada.JAMA network open · 2022Article
- Age structure in SIRD models for the COVID-19 pandemic-A case study on Italy data and effects on mortality.PloS one · 2022Article
- Mathematical Modeling and Control of COVID-19 Using Super Twisting Sliding Mode and Nonlinear Techniques.Computational intelligence and neuroscience · 2022Article
- Which features of an outpatient treatment for COVID-19 would be most important for pandemic control? A modelling study.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
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3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Ever since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, various public health control strategies have been proposed and tested against the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. We study three specific COVID-19 epidemic control models: the susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered (SEIR) model with vaccination control; the SEIR model with shield immunity control; and the susceptible, un-quarantined infected, quarantined infected, confirmed infected (SUQC) model with quarantine control. We express the control requirement in metric temporal logic (MTL) formulas (a type of formal specification languages) which can specify the expected control outcomes such as "the deaths from the infection should never exceed one thousand per day within the next three months" or "the population immune from the disease should eventually exceed 200 thousand within the next 100 to 120 days". We then develop methods for synthesizing control strategies with MTL specifications. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to systematically synthesize control strategies based on the COVID-19 epidemic models with formal specifications. We provide simulation results in three different case studies: vaccination control for the COVID-19 epidemic with model parameters estimated from data in Lombardy, Italy; shield immunity control for the COVID-19 epidemic with model parameters estimated from data in Lombardy, Italy; and quarantine control for the COVID-19 epidemic with model parameters estimated from data in Wuhan, China. The results show that the proposed synthesis approach can generate control inputs such that the time-varying numbers of individuals in each category (e.g., infectious, immune) satisfy the MTL specifications. The results also show that early intervention is essential in mitigating the spread of COVID-19, and more control effort is needed for more stringent MTL specifications. For example, based on the model in Lombardy, Italy, achieving less than 100 deaths per day and 10000 total deaths within 100 days requires 441.7% more vaccination control effort than achieving less than 1000 deaths per day and 50000 total deaths within 100 days.
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