ArticleJMIR public health and surveillance2021
Community and Campus COVID-19 Risk Uncertainty Under University Reopening Scenarios: Model-Based Analysis.
Article in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The Use of Expert Elicitation among Computational Modeling Studies in Health Research: A Systematic Review.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2022Pooled it
- Latent class analysis identifies risk groups to model the expected benefits of SARS-CoV-2 interventions among university students.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Willingness to be vaccinated, preventative behaviors, and social contact patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic among US college students.Journal of American college health : J of ACH · 2024Article
- COVID-19 and campus users: A longitudinal and place-based study of university mobilities in Texas.Sustainable cities and society · 2023Article
- Modeling community COVID-19 transmission risk associated with U.S. universities.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Empirical networks for localized COVID-19 interventions using WiFi infrastructure at university campuses.Frontiers in digital health · 2023Article
- Knowledge, attitudes and practices of French university students towards COVID-19 prevention-are health students better?PloS one · 2023Article
- Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants on a university campus.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 Test Positivity in NCAA Division I Student Athletes vs Nonathletes at 12 Institutions.JAMA network open · 2022Article
- Agent-Based Simulation of Virus Testing in Certain-Exposure Time through Community Health Service Centers' Evaluation-A Case Study of Wuhan.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- The impact of phased university reopenings on mitigating the spread of COVID-19: a modeling study.BMC public health · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
- Update of
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSignificant uncertainty has existed about the safety of reopening college and university campuses before the COVID-19 pandemic is better controlled. Moreover, little is known about the effects that on-campus students may have on local higher-risk communities.
objectiveWe aimed to estimate the range of potential community and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality under various university reopening plans and uncertainties.
methodsWe developed campus-only, community-only, and campus × community epidemic differential equations and agent-based models, with inputs estimated via published and grey literature, expert opinion, and parameter search algorithms. Campus opening plans (spanning fully open, hybrid, and fully virtual approaches) were identified from websites and publications. Additional student and community exposures, infections, and mortality over 16-week semesters were estimated under each scenario, with 10% trimmed medians, standard deviations, and probability intervals computed to omit extreme outliers. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to inform potential effective interventions.
resultsPredicted 16-week campus and additional community exposures, infections, and mortality for the base case with no precautions (or negligible compliance) varied significantly from their medians (4- to 10-fold). Over 5% of on-campus students were infected after a mean of 76 (SD 17) days, with the greatest increase (first inflection point) occurring on average on day 84 (SD 10.2 days) of the semester and with total additional community exposures, infections, and mortality ranging from 1-187, 13-820, and 1-21 per 10,000 residents, respectively. Reopening precautions reduced infections by 24%-26% and mortality by 36%-50% in both populations. Beyond campus and community reproductive numbers, sensitivity analysis indicated no dominant factors that interventions could primarily target to reduce the magnitude and variability in outcomes, suggesting the importance of comprehensive public health measures and surveillance.
conclusionsCommunity and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality resulting from reopening campuses are highly unpredictable regardless of precautions. Public health implications include the need for effective surveillance and flexible campus operations.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.