Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33662833›Full record

ArticleEBioMedicine2021

Time series analysis and mechanistic modelling of heterogeneity and sero-reversion in antibody responses to mild SARS‑CoV-2 infection.

Charlotte Manisty, Thomas Alexander Treibel, Melanie Jensen, Amanda Semper, George Joy, Rishi K Gupta, Teresa Cutino-Moguel, Mervyn Andiapen, Jessica Jones, Stephen Taylor and 18 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in EBioMedicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
43citing papers in PubMed
4.4field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

43 citing papers in PubMed, 71 citations in OpenAlex.

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  13. The durability of natural infection and vaccine-induced immunity against future infection by SARS-CoV-2.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022
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  16. Observational
  17. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 and Blood Safety: An Updated Review.Transfusion medicine and hemotherapy : offizielles Organ der Deutschen Gesellschaft fur Transfusionsmedizin und Immunhamatologie · 2022
    Review
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  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

28 authors at 9 institutions in 3 countries.

Charlotte ManistyInstitute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University College London, London, UK; Barts Heart Centre, St Bartholomew's Hospital, Barts Health NHS Trust, London, UK.
Thomas Alexander TreibelInstitute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University College London, London, UK; Barts Heart Centre, St Bartholomew's Hospital, Barts Health NHS Trust, London, UK.
Melanie JensenBarts Heart Centre, St Bartholomew's Hospital, Barts Health NHS Trust, London, UK.
Amanda SemperNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Porton Down, UK.
George JoyBarts Heart Centre, St Bartholomew's Hospital, Barts Health NHS Trust, London, UK.
Rishi K GuptaDivision of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK.
Teresa Cutino-MoguelDepartment of Virology, Barts Health NHS Trust, London, UK.
Mervyn AndiapenCentre for Cardiovascular Medicine and Devices, William Harvey Research Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Jessica JonesNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Porton Down, UK.
Stephen TaylorNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Porton Down, UK.
Ashley OtterNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Porton Down, UK.
Corrina PadeBlizard Institute, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Joseph GibbonsBlizard Institute, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Jason LeeBlizard Institute, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Joanna BaconNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Porton Down, UK.
Steve ThomasNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Porton Down, UK.
Chris MoonNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Porton Down, UK.
Meleri JonesWolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Dylan WilliamsMRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, UK; Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Jonathan LambourneDepartment of Infection, Barts Health NHS Trust, London, UK.
Marianna FontanaRoyal Free London NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK; Division of Medicine, University College London, London, UK.
Daniel M AltmannDepartment of Immunology and Inflammation, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Rosemary BoytonDepartment of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Mala MainiDivision of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK.
Aine McKnightWolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Benjamin ChainDivision of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK.
Mahdad NoursadeghiDivision of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK. Electronic address: m.noursadeghi@ucl.ac.uk.
James C MoonInstitute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University College London, London, UK; Barts Heart Centre, St Bartholomew's Hospital, Barts Health NHS Trust, London, UK.
Public Health England · GBQueen Mary University of London · GBSt Bartholomew's Hospital · GBUniversity College London · GBBarts Health NHS Trust · GBImperial College London · GBInstitute of Infection and Immunity · CAKarolinska Institutet · SERoyal Free London NHS Foundation Trust · GB

Funding

British Heart Foundation FS/18/21/33447Department of Health DRF-2018-11-ST2-004Medical Research Council MR/S019553/1Medical Research Council MR/V027883/1Medical Research Council MR/V036939/1Medical Research Council MR/W020610/1Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundSARS-CoV-2 serology is used to identify prior infection at individual and at population level. Extended longitudinal studies with multi-timepoint sampling to evaluate dynamic changes in antibody levels are required to identify the time horizon in which these applications of serology are valid, and to explore the longevity of protective humoral immunity.

methodsHealthcare workers were recruited to a prospective cohort study from the first SARS-CoV-2 epidemic peak in London, undergoing weekly symptom screen, viral PCR and blood sampling over 16-21 weeks. Serological analysis (n =12,990) was performed using semi-quantitative Euroimmun IgG to viral spike S1 domain and Roche total antibody to viral nucleocapsid protein (NP) assays. Comparisons were made to pseudovirus neutralizing antibody measurements.

findingsA total of 157/729 (21.5%) participants developed positive SARS-CoV-2 serology by one or other assay, of whom 31.0% were asymptomatic and there were no deaths. Peak Euroimmun anti-S1 and Roche anti-NP measurements correlated (r = 0.57, p<0.0001) but only anti-S1 measurements correlated with near-contemporary pseudovirus neutralising antibody titres (measured at 16-18 weeks, r = 0.57, p<0.0001). By 21 weeks' follow-up, 31/143 (21.7%) anti-S1 and 6/150 (4.0%) anti-NP measurements reverted to negative. Mathematical modelling revealed faster clearance of anti-S1 compared to anti-NP (median half-life of 2.5 weeks versus 4.0 weeks), earlier transition to lower levels of antibody production (median of 8 versus 13 weeks), and greater reductions in relative antibody production rate after the transition (median of 35% versus 50%).

interpretationMild SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with heterogeneous serological responses in Euroimmun anti-S1 and Roche anti-NP assays. Anti-S1 responses showed faster rates of clearance, more rapid transition from high to low level production rate and greater reduction in production rate after this transition. In mild infection, anti-S1 serology alone may underestimate incident infections. The mechanisms that underpin faster clearance and lower rates of sustained anti-S1 production may impact on the longevity of humoral immunity.

fundingCharitable donations via Barts Charity, Wellcome Trust, NIHR.

Indexed as

Antibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralCoronavirus Nucleocapsid ProteinsCOVID-19Health PersonnelHumansImmunoglobulin AImmunoglobulin GPhosphoproteinsProtein DomainsSARS-CoV-2Spike Glycoprotein, CoronavirusAntibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralCoronavirus Nucleocapsid ProteinsImmunoglobulin AImmunoglobulin Gnucleocapsid phosphoprotein, SARS-CoV-2PhosphoproteinsSpike Glycoprotein, Coronavirusspike protein, SARS-CoV-2SARS-CoV-2, Serology, Mathematical modelling, Sero-reversion

Identifiers

PMID33662833
PMCPMC7920816
OpenAlexW3134529941

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.