ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2021
Localized end-of-outbreak determination for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): examples from clusters in Japan.
Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Real-time inference of the end of an outbreak: Temporally aggregated disease incidence data and under-reporting.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Using real-time modelling to inform the 2017 Ebola outbreak response in DR Congo.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Optimizing the timing of an end-of-outbreak declaration: Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Science advances · 2024Article
- Exact calculation of end-of-outbreak probabilities using contact tracing data.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Time-varying overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the periods when different variants of concern were circulating in Japan.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- A quantitative method to project the probability of the end of an epidemic: Application to the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, 2020.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- Analysis of Superspreading Potential from Transmission Clusters of COVID-19 in South Korea.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesEnd-of-outbreak declarations are an important component of outbreak response because they indicate that public health and social interventions may be relaxed or lapsed. Our study aimed to assess end-of-outbreak probabilities for clusters of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases detected during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.
methodsA statistical model for end-of-outbreak determination, which accounted for reporting delays for new cases, was computed. Four clusters, representing different social contexts and time points during the first wave of the epidemic, were selected and their end-of-outbreak probabilities were evaluated.
resultsThe speed of end-of-outbreak determination was most closely tied to outbreak size. Notably, accounting underascertainment of cases led to later end-of-outbreak determinations. In addition, end-of-outbreak determination was closely related to estimates of case dispersionk and the effective reproduction number R
conclusionsWhen public health measures are effective, lowerR
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.