ArticlePLoS computational biology2021
Age-structured non-pharmaceutical interventions for optimal control of COVID-19 epidemic.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed.
- Review
- Leaky or polarised immunity: Non-Markovian modelling highlights the impact of immune memory assumptions.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- From node to network: weaving a global perspective on efficacy and costs of non-pharmaceutical interventions.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Mathematical assessment of the roles of age heterogeneity and vaccination on the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Optimal social distancing in epidemic control: cost prioritization, adherence and insights into preparedness principles.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Optimized numerical solutions of SIRDVW multiage model controlling SARS-CoV-2 vaccine roll out: An application to the Italian scenario.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Path integral control of a stochastic multi-risk SIR pandemic model.Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften · 2023Article
- Mathematical analysis of the impact of the media coverage in mitigating the outbreak of COVID-19.Mathematics and computers in simulation · 2023Article
- Data-driven multiscale dynamical framework to control a pandemic evolution with non-pharmaceutical interventions.PloS one · 2023Article
- Evaluating the effectiveness of lockdowns and restrictions during SARS-CoV-2 variant waves in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- The impact of age structure and vaccine prioritization on COVID-19 in West Africa.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- A patchy theoretical model for the transmission dynamics of SARS-Cov-2 with optimal control.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Dynamic stability and optimal control of SISChaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Chasing up and locking down the virus: Optimal pandemic interventions within a network.Journal of public economic theory · 2022Article
- Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in British Columbia: An age-structured model with time-dependent contact rates.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Principles of mathematical epidemiology and compartmental modelling application to COVID-19.Anaesthesia, critical care & pain medicine · 2022Article
- Optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention policy for Covid-19 epidemic via neuroevolution algorithm.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2022Article
- Research on Discrete Dynamic Modeling of Learner Behavior Analysis in English Teaching.Computational intelligence and neuroscience · 2022Article
- A Tale of Three Recent Pandemics: Influenza, HIV and SARS-CoV-2.Frontiers in microbiology · 2022Review
- Assessment of event-triggered policies of nonpharmaceutical interventions based on epidemiological indicators.Journal of mathematical biology · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In an epidemic, individuals can widely differ in the way they spread the infection depending on their age or on the number of days they have been infected for. In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions such as a vaccine or treatment, non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. physical or social distancing) are essential to mitigate the pandemic. We develop an original approach to identify the optimal age-stratified control strategy to implement as a function of the time since the onset of the epidemic. This is based on a model with a double continuous structure in terms of host age and time since infection. By applying optimal control theory to this model, we identify a solution that minimizes deaths and costs associated with the implementation of the control strategy itself. We also implement this strategy for three countries with contrasted age distributions (Burkina-Faso, France, and Vietnam). Overall, the optimal strategy varies throughout the epidemic, with a more intense control early on, and depending on host age, with a stronger control for the older population, except in the scenario where the cost associated with the control is low. In the latter scenario, we find strong differences across countries because the control extends to the younger population for France and Vietnam 2 to 3 months after the onset of the epidemic, but not for Burkina Faso. Finally, we show that the optimal control strategy strongly outperforms a constant uniform control exerted over the whole population or over its younger fraction. This improved understanding of the effect of age-based control interventions opens new perspectives for the field, especially for age-based contact tracing.
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