ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2021
Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.
Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1,531 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1,531 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Broad cross-T cell immunity between emerging SARS-CoV-2 serotypes waved by spike-signature mutations.Emerging microbes & infections · 2026Article
- Universal SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR admission screening over 21 months in a German tertiary care hospital: detection of asymptomatic infections.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Six Years of COVID-19: Lessons from Epidemiology, Vaccination Campaigns, Clinical Risk Stratification, and Thromboembolic Surveillance.Vaccines · 2026Review
- Inferring variant-specific effective reproduction numbers from combined case and sequencing data.eLife · 2026Article
- Article
- Antigenic Variation and Immune Recognition Inference From the COVID-19 Pandemic: An In Silico Comparative Analysis of Spike T Cell Epitopes From the SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2026Article
- A cocktail of SARS-CoV-2 S stem helix domain and receptor binding domain human monoclonal antibodies prevents the emergence of viral escape mutants.Microbiology spectrum · 2026Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Variants and Immune Evasion: Mapping the Future of Vaccine Design.Reviews in medical virology · 2026Review
- Article
- Spectroscopic secondary structure fingerprint of β-variant of SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein.European biophysics journal : EBJ · 2026Article
- Containment of a Multi-index B.1.1.7 Outbreak on a University Campus Through a Genomically Informed Public Health Response.Open forum infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Understanding patterns of variant emergence and spread in an ongoing epidemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Lessons from Two Early COVID-19 Hospital Outbreaks in Germany to Inform Strategies for Controlling Emerging Nosocomial Outbreaks of Highly Transmissible Respiratory Viruses.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Structural Constraints Acting on the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Reveal Limited Space for Viral Adaptation.Genome biology and evolution · 2026Article
- Antibody escape drives emergence of diverse spike haplotypes resembling variants of concern in persistent SARS-CoV-2 infections.Cell reports. Medicine · 2026Article
- Enhancing time-varying reproduction number estimates for COVID-19 with behavior and surveillance data in South Korea, 2020-2022.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Article
- Pathological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 variants and immune responses induced in a COVID-19 macaque model.Communications biology · 2026Article
- Back to the wildtype: SARS-CoV-2 evolution in critically ill patients with severe lung failure.Infection · 2026Article
- A novel fusion protein of COVID-19 virus enhancing protection of Syrian hamsters infected with SARS-CoV-2.Acta pharmaceutica Sinica. B · 2026Article
1,471 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
25 authors.
Funding
Abstract
A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.