Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33655240›Full record

ArticleResearch square2021

Adaptive Human Behavior in Epidemics: the Impact of Risk Misperception on the Spread of Epidemics.

Baltazar Espinoza, Madhav Marathe, Samarth Swarup, Mugdha Thakur

Open access · greenAbstract readPreprint
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Research square, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed, 3 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Baltazar EspinozaBiocomplexity Institute and Initiative, Network Systems Science and Advanced Computing Division, University of Virginia, Virginia, USA.
Madhav MaratheBiocomplexity Institute and Initiative, Network Systems Science and Advanced Computing Division, University of Virginia, Virginia, USA.
Samarth SwarupBiocomplexity Institute and Initiative, Network Systems Science and Advanced Computing Division, University of Virginia, Virginia, USA.
Mugdha ThakurBiocomplexity Institute and Initiative, Network Systems Science and Advanced Computing Division, University of Virginia, Virginia, USA.
Biocom · US

Funding

Systems Analysis of Social Pathways of Epidemics to Reduce Health DisparitiesR01GM109718 · NIGMS · VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INST AND ST UNIV · PI MARATHE, ACHLA, VULLIKANTI, ANIL · 2014 to 2022
$3.6M
NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM109718
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Infections produced by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic (non-symptomatic) individuals have been identified as major drivers of COVID-19 transmission. Non-symptomatic individuals unaware of the infection risk they pose to others, may perceive themselves --and being perceived by others-- as not representing risk of infection. Yet many epidemiological models currently in use do not include a behavioral component, and do not address the potential consequences of risk misperception. To study the impact of behavioral adaptations to the perceived infection risk, we use a mathematical model that incorporates individuals' behavioral decisions based on a projection of the future system's state over a finite planning horizon. We found that individuals' risk misperception in the presence of asymptomatic individuals may increase or reduce the final epidemic size. Moreover, under behavioral response the impact of asymptomatic infections is modulated by symptomatic individuals' behavior. Finally, we found that there is an optimal planning horizon that minimizes the final epidemic size.

Identifiers

PMID33655240
PMCPMC7924275
OpenAlexW3131902233

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.