Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33654515›Full record

ArticleThe Pan African medical journal2020

Estimating healthcare resource needs for COVID-19 patients in Nigeria.

Adeteju Ogunbameru, Kali Barrett, Arinola Joda, Yasin Azim Khan, Petros Pechlivanoglou, Stephen Mac, David Naimark, Raphael Ximenes, Beate Sander

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Pan African medical journal, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Adeteju OgunbameruInstitute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Kali BarrettInstitute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Arinola JodaDepartment of Clinical Pharmacy and Biopharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria.
Yasin Azim KhanInstitute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Petros PechlivanoglouInstitute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Stephen MacInstitute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
David NaimarkInstitute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Raphael XimenesToronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Beate SanderInstitute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductioncontinuous assessment of healthcare resources during the COVID-19 pandemic will help in proper planning and to prevent an overwhelming of the Nigerian healthcare system. In this study, we aim to predict the effect of COVID-19 on hospital resources in Nigeria.

methodswe adopted a previously published discrete-time, individual-level, health-state transition model of symptomatic COVID-19 patients to the Nigerian healthcare system and COVID-19 epidemiology in Nigeria by September 2020. We simulated different combined scenarios of epidemic trajectories and acute care capacity. Primary outcomes included the expected cumulative number of cases, days until depletion resources and the number of deaths associated with resource constraints. Outcomes were predicted over a 60-day time horizon.

resultsin our best-case epidemic trajectory, which implies successful implementation of public health measures to control COVID-19 spread, assuming all three resource scenarios, hospital resources would not be expended within the 60-days time horizon. In our worst-case epidemic trajectory, assuming conservative resource scenario, only ventilated ICU beds would be depleted after 39 days and 16 patients were projected to die while waiting for ventilated ICU bed. Acute care resources were only sufficient in the three epidemic trajectory scenarios when combined with a substantial increase in healthcare resources.

conclusionsubstantial increase in hospital resources is required to manage the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, even as the infection growth rate declines. Given Nigeria's limited health resources, it is imperative to focus on maintaining aggressive public health measures as well as increasing hospital resources to reduce COVID-19 transmission further.

Indexed as

COVID-19Critical CareDelivery of Health CareHealth ResourcesHospitalsHumansIntensive Care UnitsModels, TheoreticalNigeriaTime FactorsCoronavirushealth careinfectious diseasesNigeriapublic healthsimulation model

Identifiers

PMID33654515
PMCPMC7881931

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.