Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33654180›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2021

SARS2 simplified scores to estimate risk of hospitalization and death among patients with COVID-19.

Hesam Dashti, Elise C Roche, David William Bates, Samia Mora, Olga Demler

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. A Systematic Review of Predictor Composition, Outcomes, Risk of Bias, and Validation of COVID-19 Prognostic Scores.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024
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  12. A hitchhiker's guide through the COVID-19 galaxy.Clinical immunology (Orlando, Fla.) · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Hesam DashtiDivision of Preventive Medicine, Center for Lipid Metabolomics, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4566-0582
Elise C RocheDivision of Preventive Medicine, Center for Lipid Metabolomics, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
David William BatesDivision of Preventive Medicine, Center for Lipid Metabolomics, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Samia Mora *Division of Preventive Medicine, Center for Lipid Metabolomics, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. smora@bwh.harvard.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-6283-0980
Olga Demler *Division of Preventive Medicine, Center for Lipid Metabolomics, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.

Funding

Training Program in the Epidemiology of CVDT32HL007575 · NHLBI · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (MEDICAL SCHOOL) · PI BURING, JULIE E., RIDKER, PAUL M. · 1985 to 2019
$5.0M
Patient Centered Approaches to Preventing ASCVD EventsK24HL136852 · NHLBI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI SAMIA MORA · 2018 to 2026
$1.1M
CHD Risk and Metabolomic Profiles of Discordant LipidsK01HL135342 · NHLBI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI DEMLER, OLGA · 2017 to 2021
$857k
Consensus Framework for Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in a Clinical SettingR21HL167173 · NHLBI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI DEMLER, OLGA · 2023 to 2024
$269k
American Heart Association (American Heart Association, Inc.) 17IGMV33860009NHLBI NIH HHS K01 HL135342NHLBI NIH HHS K24 HL136852NHLBI NIH HHS R21 HL167173NHLBI NIH HHS T32 HL007575U.S. Department of Health and Human Services | NIH | National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) 5K01HL135342
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Although models have been developed for predicting severity of COVID-19 from the medical history of patients, simplified models with good accuracy could be more practical. In this study, we examined utility of simpler models for estimating risk of hospitalization of patients with COVID-19 and mortality of these patients based on demographic characteristics (sex, age, race, median household income based on zip code) and smoking status of 12,347 patients who tested positive at Mass General Brigham centers. The corresponding electronic records were queried (02/26-07/14/2020) to construct derivation and validation cohorts. The derivation cohort was used to fit generalized linear models for estimating risk of hospitalization within 30 days of COVID-19 diagnosis and mortality within approximately 3 months for the hospitalized patients. In the validation cohort, the model resulted in c-statistics of 0.77 [95% CI 0.73-0.80] for hospitalization, and 0.84 [95% CI 0.74-0.94] for mortality among hospitalized patients. Higher risk was associated with older age, male sex, Black ethnicity, lower socioeconomic status, and current/past smoking status. The models can be applied to predict the absolute risks of hospitalization and mortality, and could aid in individualizing the decision making when detailed medical history of patients is not readily available.

Indexed as

AdultAgedAlgorithmsCohort StudiesComputational BiologyCOVID-19COVID-19 TestingEthnicityFemaleHospitalizationHumansMaleMiddle AgedModels, StatisticalNomogramsRacial Groups

Identifiers

PMID33654180
PMCPMC7925678

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.