SynthesisBMJ open2021
Systematic review of prediction models for pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes in adults.
Synthesis in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 52 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
52 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 79 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prediction Models for Maternal and Offspring Short- and Long-Term Outcomes Following Gestational Diabetes: A Systematic Review.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2025Pooled it
- Tuberculosis in Sudan: systematic review and meta analysis.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2024Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Diagnostic models predicting paediatric viral acute respiratory infections: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2023Pooled it
- Couples-based interventions and postpartum contraceptive uptake: A systematic review.Contraception · 2022Pooled it
- Risk-stratified treatment for drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis.Nature communications · 2024Trial
- A pharmacometric multistate model for predicting long-term treatment outcomes of patients with pulmonary TB.The Journal of antimicrobial chemotherapy · 2024Trial
- Prognostic Performance of C-Reactive Protein for Tuberculosis Outcome: Protocol for a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.JMIR research protocols · 2026Article
- Article
- A Point-of-Care Prediction Tool for Recurrent Tuberculosis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Article
- Prognostic models predicting clinical outcomes in patients diagnosed with visceral leishmaniasis: a systematic review.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Artificial Intelligence in the Diagnosis and Management of Pulmonary Tuberculosis: A Review of Current Applications and Future Perspectives.Therapeutics and clinical risk management · 2026Review
- Symptomatic (STB) and Asymptomatic (ATB) tuberculosis in Italy: Results from a multicenter retrospective study.Journal of clinical tuberculosis and other mycobacterial diseases · 2025Article
- Clinical factors associated with surgical interventions in patients with intestinal obstruction caused by abdominal tuberculosis.Surgery today · 2025Article
- Clinical and bacterial determinants of unfavorable tuberculosis treatment outcomes: an observational study in Georgia.Genome medicine · 2025Observational
- Predicting treatment outcomes in drug-sensitive pulmonary tuberculosis patients in rural eastern China.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Using Machine Learning Methods to Predict Early Treatment Outcomes for Multidrug-Resistant or Rifampicin-Resistant Tuberculosis to Enhance Patient Cure Rates: Development and Validation of Multiple Models.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Article
- Risk factors for tuberculosis treatment outcomes: a statistical learning-based exploration using the SINAN database with incomplete observations.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2025Article
- Anti-tuberculosis drug-induced hepatotoxicity and associated risk factors among patients with pulmonary tuberculosis at a tertiary care hospital in Thailand.IJID regions · 2025Article
- Assessment of Risk Factors for Death in Older Adult Patients With TB in Japan.CHEST pulmonary · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo systematically review and critically evaluate prediction models developed to predict tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes among adults with pulmonary TB.
designSystematic review. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Google Scholar were searched for studies published from 1 January 1995 to 9 January 2020. STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION: Studies that developed a model to predict pulmonary TB treatment outcomes were included. Study screening, data extraction and quality assessment were conducted independently by two reviewers. Study quality was evaluated using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. Data were synthesised with narrative review and in tables and figures.
results14 739 articles were identified, 536 underwent full-text review and 33 studies presenting 37 prediction models were included. Model outcomes included death (n=16, 43%), treatment failure (n=6, 16%), default (n=6, 16%) or a composite outcome (n=9, 25%). Most models (n=30, 81%) measured discrimination (median c-statistic=0.75; IQR: 0.68-0.84), and 17 (46%) reported calibration, often the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (n=13). Nineteen (51%) models were internally validated, and six (16%) were externally validated. Eighteen (54%) studies mentioned missing data, and of those, half (n=9) used complete case analysis. The most common predictors included age, sex, extrapulmonary TB, body mass index, chest X-ray results, previous TB and HIV. Risk of bias varied across studies, but all studies had high risk of bias in their analysis.
conclusionsTB outcome prediction models are heterogeneous with disparate outcome definitions, predictors and methodology. We do not recommend applying any in clinical settings without external validation, and encourage future researchers adhere to guidelines for developing and reporting of prediction models.
trial registrationThe study was registered on the international prospective register of systematic reviews PROSPERO (CRD42020155782).
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.