ArticleBMC medicine2021
Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of eliminating cervical cancer through a tailored optimal pathway: a modeling study.
Article in BMC medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 46 citations in OpenAlex.
- Human Papillomavirus Across the Reproductive Lifespan: An Integrative Review of Fertility, Pregnancy Outcomes, and Fertility-Sparing Management.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Pooled it
- Analysis and simulation for a two-sex transmission model of HPV infection in Xinjiang of China.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Article
- Impact of switching from a quadrivalent to a nonavalent HPV vaccine on HPV infections and cervical cancer in Colombia: a mathematical modelling study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Modelling the epidemic dynamics of HPV among women in China and optimization of ongoing cervical cancer elimination strategies.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- COVID-19 pandemic disruptions drive decreases in HPV prevalence and shift genotype distribution in Western China.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Modeling cervical cancer elimination: a pathway to inform policy decisions.Cancer biology & medicine · 2025Article
- Social Media-Based Cancer Education: Bibliometric and Thematic Analysis.JMIR cancer · 2025Article
- Impact of government-organized screening programs on the economic burden of cervical cancer across five disease courses: a multistage regression and mediation analysis.Cancer biology & medicine · 2025Article
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of switching from a bivalent to a nonavalent HPV vaccination programme in China: a modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Cervical cancer screening by cotesting method for Vietnamese women 25-55 years old: a cost-effectiveness analysis.BMJ open · 2025Article
- A pay-it-forward approach to improve feedback rate of HPV-based self-sampling in cervical cancer screening among women in ethnic minority regions of China: a randomized controlled trial protocol.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2025Article
- The 2Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Article
- Opportunities and challenges for human papillomavirus vaccination in China.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Review
- Effects and Costs of Hepatitis C Virus Elimination for the Whole Population in China: A Modelling Study.PharmacoEconomics · 2024Article
- A Comprehensive Evaluation of the HPV Neutralizing Antibodies in Guangzhou, China: A Comparative Study on Various HPV Vaccines.Vaccines · 2024Article
- Informing HPV vaccine pricing for government-funded vaccination in mainland China: a modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- How can China achieve WHO's 2030 targets for eliminating cervical cancer?BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2024Article
- Strategies to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2024Article
- Projected Time for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer Under Various Intervention Scenarios: Age-Period-Cohort Macrosimulation Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
11 authors at 4 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe World Health Assembly has adopted a global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer. However, neither the optimal pathway nor the corresponding economic and health benefits have been evaluated. We take China as an example to assess the optimal pathway towards elimination and the cost-effectiveness of tailored actions.
methodsA validated hybrid model was used to assess the costs and benefits of alternative strategies combining human papillomavirus vaccination, cervical screening, and treatment of pre-invasive lesions and invasive cancer for females with different immunization history. All Chinese females living or projected to be born during 2015-2100, under projected trends in aging, urbanization, and sexual activity, were considered. Optimal strategies were determined by cost-effectiveness efficiency frontiers. Primary outcomes were cervical cancer cases and deaths averted and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We employed a lifetime horizon from a societal perspective. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses evaluate model uncertainty.
resultsThe optimal pathway represents an integration of multiple tailored strategies from females with different immunization history. If China adopts the optimal pathway, the age-standardized incidence of cervical cancer is predicted to decrease to fewer than four new cases per 100,000 women (i.e., elimination) by 2047 (95% confidence interval 2043 to 2050). Compared to the status quo, the optimal pathway would avert a total of 7,509,192 (6,922,744 to 8,359,074) cervical cancer cases and 2,529,873 (2,366,826 to 2,802,604) cervical cancer deaths in 2021-2100, with the discounted ICER being $- 339 (- 687 to - 79) per quality-adjusted life-year.
conclusionsBy adopting an optimal pathway from 2021 (namely, the year of the first Chinese Centennial Goals) onwards, cervical cancer could be eliminated by the late 2040s (namely, ahead of the second Chinese Centennial Goals) while saving net economic costs in China.
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