ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2021
Optimising passive surveillance of a neglected tropical disease in the era of elimination: A modelling study.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Transmission and cost-effectiveness modelling to estimate the progress towards elimination and future strategy optimisation for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in Uganda.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Evaluation of the Entomological Adaptive Surveillance Framework for malaria vector monitoring: a comparative field trial with routine surveillance in Ghana and Mozambique.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Real-time, multi-pathogen wastewater genomic surveillance with Freyja 2.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Mapping and quantifying travel time to define health facility catchment areas in Blantyre city in Malawi.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Information-guided adaptive learning approach for active surveillance of infectious diseases.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Using Passive Surveillance to Maintain Elimination as a Public Health Problem for Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Model-Based Exploration.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- A multi-criteria framework for disease surveillance site selection: case study forRoyal Society open science · 2024Article
- Forecasting virus outbreaks with social media data via neural ordinary differential equations.Scientific reports · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSurveillance is an essential component of global programs to eliminate infectious diseases and avert epidemics of (re-)emerging diseases. As the numbers of cases decline, costs of treatment and control diminish but those for surveillance remain high even after the 'last' case. Reducing surveillance may risk missing persistent or (re-)emerging foci of disease. Here, we use a simulation-based approach to determine the minimal number of passive surveillance sites required to ensure maximum coverage of a population at-risk (PAR) of an infectious disease. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL
findingsFor this study, we use Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) in north-western Uganda, a neglected tropical disease (NTD) which has been reduced to historically low levels (<1000 cases/year globally), as an example. To quantify travel time to diagnostic facilities, a proxy for surveillance coverage, we produced a high spatial-resolution resistance surface and performed cost-distance analyses. We simulated travel time for the PAR with different numbers (1-170) and locations (170,000 total placement combinations) of diagnostic facilities, quantifying the percentage of the PAR within 1h and 5h travel of the facilities, as per in-country targets. Our simulations indicate that a 70% reduction (51/170) in diagnostic centres still exceeded minimal targets of coverage even for remote populations, with >95% of a total PAR of ~3million individuals living ≤1h from a diagnostic centre, and we demonstrate an approach to best place these facilities, informing a minimal impact scale back.
conclusionsOur results highlight that surveillance of g-HAT in north-western Uganda can be scaled back without substantially reducing coverage of the PAR. The methodology described can contribute to cost-effective and equable strategies for the surveillance of NTDs and other infectious diseases approaching elimination or (re-)emergence.
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