ArticleBMC research notes2021
Predicting the incidence of brucellosis in Western Iran using Markov switching model.
Article in BMC research notes, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 8 citations in OpenAlex.
- Climate-Sensitive Transmission of Human Brucellosis: A Systematic Review of Climatic and Environmental Determinants in the Middle East.Journal of tropical medicine · 2026Review
- Ecological study of human brucellosis in Iran from 2000 to 2023 and the limited role of climatic factors.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Risk effects of environmental factors on human brucellosis in Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang, China, 2014-2023.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal epidemiology of brucellosis in Iran from 2009 to 2018: A mixed ecological study.Journal of research in medical sciences : the official journal of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences · 2025Article
- Spatial Epidemiology and Temporal Trend of Brucellosis in Iran Using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Join Point Regression Analysis: An Ecological 10-Year Study.Iranian journal of public health · 2024Article
- Risk effects of meteorological factors on human brucellosis in Jilin province, China, 2005-2019.Heliyon · 2024Article
- The research on TBATS and ELM models for prediction of human brucellosis cases in mainland China: a time series study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveBrucellosis is a zoonosis almost chronic disease. Brucellosis bacteria can remain in the environment for a long time. Thus, climate irregularities could pave the way for the survival of the bacterium brucellosis. Brucellosis is more common in men 25 to 29 years of age, in the western provinces, and in the spring months. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of climatic factors as well as predicting the incidence of brucellosis in Qazvin province using the Markov switching model (MSM). This study is a secondary study of data collected from 2010 to 2019 in Qazvin province. The data include brucellosis cases and climatic parameters. Two state MSM with time lags of 0, 1 and 2 was fitted to the data. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) was used to evaluate the models.
resultsAccording to the BIC, the two-state MSM with a 1-month lag is a suitable model. The month, the average-wind-speed, the minimum-temperature have a positive effect on the number of brucellosis, the age and rainfall have a negative effect. The results show that the probability of an outbreak for the third month of 2019 is 0.30%.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.