Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33643988›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in public health2021

Facilitating Understanding, Modeling and Simulation of Infectious Disease Epidemics in the Age of COVID-19.

David M Rubin, Shamin Achari, Craig S Carlson, Robyn F R Letts, Adam Pantanowitz, Michiel Postema, Xriz L Richards, Brian Wigdorowitz

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
1.3field-weighted citation impact, top 22% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 16 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. An analysis of spatial and temporal uncertainty propagation in agent-based models.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

David M RubinBiomedical Engineering Research Group, School of EIE, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Shamin AchariBiomedical Engineering Research Group, School of EIE, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Craig S CarlsonBiomedical Engineering Research Group, School of EIE, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Robyn F R LettsBiomedical Engineering Research Group, School of EIE, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Adam PantanowitzBiomedical Engineering Research Group, School of EIE, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Michiel PostemaBiomedical Engineering Research Group, School of EIE, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Xriz L RichardsBiomedical Engineering Research Group, School of EIE, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Brian WigdorowitzBiomedical Engineering Research Group, School of EIE, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
University of the Witwatersrand · ZATampere University · FI

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases has increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many medical students do not have the required background in coding or mathematics to engage optimally in this approach. System dynamics is a methodology for implementing mathematical models as easy-to-understand stock-flow diagrams. Remarkably, creating stock-flow diagrams is the same process as creating the equivalent differential equations. Yet, its visual nature makes the process simple and intuitive. We demonstrate the simplicity of system dynamics by applying it to epidemic models including a model of COVID-19 mutation. We then discuss the ease with which far more complex models can be produced by implementing a model comprising eight differential equations of a Chikungunya epidemic from the literature. Finally, we discuss the learning environment in which the teaching of the epidemic modeling occurs. We advocate the widespread use of system dynamics to empower those who are engaged in infectious disease epidemiology, regardless of their mathematical background.

Indexed as

Communicable DiseasesComputer SimulationCOVID-19Models, TheoreticalPandemicsAlgorithmsHumansSARS-CoV-2engagement with COVID-19 modelsepidemic modelingmechanistic epidemiologysystem dynamicsundergraduate teaching

Identifiers

PMID33643988
PMCPMC7907159
OpenAlexW3131870198

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.