ArticleJournal of global health2021
Mathematical modeling of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Qatar and its impact on the national response to COVID-19.
Article in Journal of global health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 50 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
50 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- Two Versus One COVID-19 Vaccine Dose After Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study.Open forum infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Evaluating COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness across epidemiologic designs: test-negative case-control versus retrospective cohort analyses in a nationwide study.International journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Global Estimates of COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality: A Cohort Study and Mathematical Model Analysis.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2025Article
- Effectiveness and durability of a fourth dose of ancestral-strain mRNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection: a nationwide matched cohort study in Qatar.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Effectiveness of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Vaxzevria) primary series vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 beta and delta variants: a nationwide study.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Immune histories and natural infection protection during the omicron era.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Protection conferred by SARS-CoV-2 infection across a spectrum of reinfection symptoms and severities.BMJ open respiratory research · 2025Article
- Article
- Hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa: mathematical modeling analyses of incidence and intervention impact.EClinicalMedicine · 2025Article
- Article
- BNT162b2 Versus mRNA-1273 Vaccines: Comparative Analysis of Long-Term Protection Against SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Severe COVID-19 in Qatar.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2024Article
- Estimating protection afforded by prior infection in preventing reinfection: applying the test-negative study design.American journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Addressing bias in the definition of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection: implications for underestimation.Frontiers in medicine · 2024Article
- SARS-CoV-2 infection and effects of age, sex, comorbidity, and vaccination among older individuals: A national cohort study.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2023Article
- History of primary-series and booster vaccination and protection against Omicron reinfection.Science advances · 2023Article
- Effects of previous infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity against symptomatic Alpha, Beta, and Delta SARS-CoV-2 infections: an observational study.EBioMedicine · 2023Observational
- Population immunity of natural infection, primary-series vaccination, and booster vaccination in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study.EClinicalMedicine · 2023Article
- All-cause and COVID-19 mortality in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic.BMJ global health · 2023Article
- The COVID-19 pandemic in various restriction policy scenarios based on the dynamic social contact rate.Heliyon · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
20 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMathematical modeling constitutes an important tool for planning robust responses to epidemics. This study was conducted to guide the Qatari national response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic. The study investigated the epidemic's time-course, forecasted health care needs, predicted the impact of social and physical distancing restrictions, and rationalized and justified easing of restrictions.
methodsAn age-structured deterministic model was constructed to describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and disease progression throughout the population.
resultsThe enforced social and physical distancing interventions flattened the epidemic curve, reducing the peaks for incidence, prevalence, acute-care hospitalization, and intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations by 87%, 86%, 76%, and 78%, respectively. The daily number of new infections was predicted to peak at 12 750 on May 23, and active-infection prevalence was predicted to peak at 3.2% on May 25. Daily acute-care and ICU-care hospital admissions and occupancy were forecast accurately and precisely. By October 15, 2020, the basic reproduction number
conclusionsUse of modeling and forecasting to guide the national response proved to be a successful strategy, reducing the toll of the epidemic to a manageable level for the health care system.
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