ReviewNonlinear dynamics2021
Impacts of varying strengths of intervention measures on secondary outbreaks of COVID-19 in two different regions.
Review in Nonlinear dynamics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Global dynamics of a network-based SIQS epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2021Article
- Numerical simulation and stability analysis of a novel reaction-diffusion COVID-19 model.Nonlinear dynamics · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
By March 2020, China and Singapore had achieved remarkable results in the prevention and control of COVID-19, but in April Singapore's outbreak began to deteriorate, while China's remained controlled. Using detailed data from Tianjin, China, and Singapore, a stochastic discrete COVID-19 epidemic model was constructed to depict the impact of the epidemic. Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis were developed to study the probability of imported cases inducing an outbreak in relation to different prevention and control efforts. Results show that the resumption of work and the re-opening of schools will not lead to an outbreak if the effective reproduction number is lower than 1 and approaches 0 and tracking quarantine measures are strengthened. Once an outbreak occurs, if close contacts can be tracked and quarantined in time, the outbreak will be contained. If work is resumed and schools are re-opened with the effective reproduction number greater than 1, then it is more likely that a secondary outbreak will be generated. Also, the greater the number of undetected foreign imported cases and the weaker the prevention and control measures, the more serious the epidemic. Therefore, the key to prevention of a second outbreak is to return to work and to re-open schools only after the effective reproduction number is less than 1 for a period, and when tracking quarantine measures have been strengthened. Our model provides a qualitative and quantitative basis for decision-making for the prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemics and the prediction, early warning and risk assessment of secondary outbreaks.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.