Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33633867›Full record

ArticleVirus evolution2021

Test-and-treat coverage and HIV virulence evolution among men who have sex with men.

Sarah E Stansfield, Joshua T Herbeck, Geoffrey S Gottlieb, Neil F Abernethy, James T Murphy, John E Mittler, Steven M Goodreau

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Virus evolution, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
0.4field-weighted citation impact, top 45% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 3 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Observational
  3. Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Sarah E StansfieldDepartment of Biomedical Informatics and Medical Education, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3251-8501
Joshua T HerbeckDepartment of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
Geoffrey S GottliebDepartments of Medicine & Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
Neil F AbernethyDepartment of Biomedical Informatics and Medical Education, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
James T MurphyDepartment of Microbiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
John E MittlerDepartment of Microbiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
Steven M GoodreauDepartment of Anthropology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4577-7406
University of Washington · USUniversity of Washington Medical Center · US

Funding

University of Washington Biomedical Informatics and Data Science Research Training ProgramT15LM007442 · NLM · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI JOHN H. GENNARI, Andrea L. Hartzler · 2002 to 2026
$19.6M
Methods and Data CoreR24HD042828 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI ELLIS, JOHN MARK · 2002 to 2016
$9.3M
Integrated bio-social models for HIV epidemiologyR01AI108490 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI GOODREAU, STEVEN M., HERBECK, JOSHUA T · 2014 to 2018
$3.4M
Statistical Methods for Network EpidemiologyR01HD068395 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI MORRIS, WANDA MARTINA · 2011 to 2015
$3.0M
Modeling the Evolutionary and Public Health Impacts of HIV Adaptation in Response to VaccinationR01AI150467 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI MITTLER, JOHN E. · 2019 to 2020
$844k
Modeling the Evolutionary and Public Health Impacts of HIV Adaptation in Response to VaccinationR01GM125440 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI HERBECK, JOSHUA T · 2017 to 2018
$841k
Using Sexual Network Transmission Models to Explain HIV Disparities Between BlackR21HD075662 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI GOODREAU, STEVEN M. · 2013 to 2014
$418k
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI108490NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI150467NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD068395NICHD NIH HHS R21 HD075662NICHD NIH HHS R24 HD042828NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM125440NLM NIH HHS T15 LM007442
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

HIV set point viral load (SPVL), the viral load established shortly after initial infection, is a proxy for HIV virulence: higher SPVLs lead to higher risk of transmission and faster disease progression. Three models of test-and-treat scenarios, mainly in heterosexual populations, found that increasing treatment coverage selected for more virulent viruses. We modeled virulence evolution in a population of men who have sex with men (MSM) with increasing test-and-treat coverage. We extended a stochastic, dynamic network model (EvoNetHIV). We varied relationship patterns (MSM vs. heterosexual), HIV transmission models (increasing vs. plateauing probability of transmission at very high viral loads), and treatment roll-out (with explicit testing or fixed intervals between infection and treatment). In scenarios most similar to previous models (longer relational durations and the plateauing transmission function), we replicated trends previously found: increasing treatment coverage led to increased virulence (0.12 log

Indexed as

evolutionHIVmathematical modelingMSMSPVLtest-and-treat

Identifiers

PMID33633867
PMCPMC7893213
OpenAlexW3127657751

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.