ArticleScientific reports2021
Power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed.
- Elastin Peptides as a Potential Disease Vector in the Pathogenesis of Pulmonary Emphysema: An Investigation of This Hypothesis.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Article
- Analyzing world city network by graph convolutional networks.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Scale-free dynamics of COVID-19 in a Brazilian city.Applied mathematical modelling · 2023Article
- An Epidemiological Analysis for Assessing and Evaluating COVID-19 Based on Data Analytics in Latin American Countries.Biology · 2023Article
- ModInterv COVID-19: An online platform to monitor the evolution of epidemic curves.Applied soft computing · 2023Article
- Heavy-tailed distributions of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in spatiotemporal space.PloS one · 2023Article
- Multiple waves of COVID-19: a pathway model approach.Nonlinear dynamics · 2023Article
- The distribution of COVID-19 mortality.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- The impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Dynamics diagnosis of the COVID-19 deaths using the Pearson diagram.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- ModInterv: An automated online software for modeling epidemics.Software impacts · 2022Article
- Changes in Temporal Properties of Notifiable Infectious Disease Epidemics in China During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Population-Based Surveillance Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Article
- The allometric propagation of COVID-19 is explained by human travel.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Exploring the relationship between mobility and COVID- 19 infection rates for the second peak in the United States using phase-wise association.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Transition from growth to decay of an epidemic due to lockdown.Biophysical journal · 2021Article
- Measuring differences between phenomenological growth models applied to epidemiology.Mathematical biosciences · 2021Article
- Emergency of Tsallis statistics in fractal networks.PloS one · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
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Abstract
We apply a versatile growth model, whose growth rate is given by a generalised beta distribution, to describe the complex behaviour of the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease for several countries in Europe and North America. We show that the COVID-19 epidemic curves not only may present a subexponential early growth but can also exhibit a similar subexponential (power-law) behaviour in the saturation regime. We argue that the power-law exponent of the latter regime, which measures how quickly the curve approaches the plateau, is directly related to control measures, in the sense that the less strict the control, the smaller the exponent and hence the slower the diseases progresses to its end. The power-law saturation uncovered here is an important result, because it signals to policymakers and health authorities that it is important to keep control measures for as long as possible, so as to avoid a slow, power-law ending of the disease. The slower the approach to the plateau, the longer the virus lingers on in the population, and the greater not only the final death toll but also the risk of a resurgence of infections.
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