ArticleScientific reports2021
Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 59 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
59 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Application of Artificial Intelligence-Based Regression Methods in the Problem of COVID-19 Spread Prediction: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
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- Time series analysis and seasonality trends of SARS-CoV-2 in Ecuador (2020-2024): a four-year study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- A Bayesian model calibration framework for stochastic compartmental models with both time-varying and time-invariant parameters.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
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- MPSTAN: Metapopulation-Based Spatio-Temporal Attention Network for Epidemic Forecasting.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Social and economic variables explain COVID-19 diffusion in European regions.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- A study on the evolution of tripartite collaborative prevention and control under public health emergencies using COVID-19 as an example.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Epidemiology: Gray immunity model gives qualitatively different predictions.Journal of biosciences · 2024Article
- The disutility of compartmental model forecasts during the COVID-19 pandemic.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2024Article
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- Predicting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants: An artificial intelligence enabled early detection.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
- Forecasting local hospital bed demand for COVID-19 using on-request simulations.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Modeling Global Monkeypox Infection Spread Data: A Comparative Study of Time Series Regression and Machine Learning Models.Current microbiology · 2023Article
- Interpretable spatial identity neural network-based epidemic prediction.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Forecasting ward-level bed requirements to aid pandemic resource planning: Lessons learned and future directions.Health care management science · 2023Article
- Prediction of COVID-19 Using a WOA-BILSTM Model.Bioengineering (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
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8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The multifaceted destructions caused by COVID-19 have been compared to that of World War II. What makes the situation even more complicated is the ambiguity about the duration and ultimate spread of the pandemic. It is especially critical for the governments, healthcare systems, and economic sectors to have an estimate of the future of this disaster. By using different mathematical approaches, including the classical susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its derivatives, many investigators have tried to predict the outbreak of COVID-19. In this study, we simulated the epidemic in Isfahan province of Iran for the period from Feb 14th to April 11th and also forecasted the remaining course with three scenarios that differed in terms of the stringency level of social distancing. Despite the prediction of disease course in short-term intervals, the constructed SIR model was unable to forecast the actual spread and pattern of epidemic in the long term. Remarkably, most of the published SIR models developed to predict COVID-19 for other communities, suffered from the same inconformity. The SIR models are based on assumptions that seem not to be true in the case of the COVID-19 epidemic. Hence, more sophisticated modeling strategies and detailed knowledge of the biomedical and epidemiological aspects of the disease are needed to forecast the pandemic.
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