ArticleTobacco control2022
Measuring the illicit cigarette market in the absence of pack security features: a case study of South Africa.
Article in Tobacco control, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 9 citations in OpenAlex.
- Economic and econometric methods to measure the illicit tobacco trade: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Trends in the illicit tobacco market in New Zealand: a consumption gap analysis.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- No Change in Illicit Tobacco Use Following the Introduction of Standardised Packaging? A Longitudinal Online Survey in the United Kingdom.Tobacco use insights · 2025Article
- Extent of illicit cigarette market from single stick sales in Ghana: findings from a cross-sectional survey.BMJ open · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
There are several ways to measure the illicit cigarette market. In South Africa, different methods were used to triangulate results. The aim of this paper is to assist researchers to decide which method is most suitable to their context, especially for countries that do not have security features on cigarette packs (eg, tax stamps). We analysed the methods and results from three published articles that used various approaches to measure cigarette illicit trade in South Africa: (1) gap analysis, (2) price threshold method using secondary data from a national survey, and (3) price threshold method using primary data collected in low socioeconomic areas. We provide methodological insights and background information. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method. The method chosen by researchers will depend on data availability, the existence or absence of security features on cigarette packs and funding. Researchers investigating illicit trade should use more than one method to increase confidence in the obtained results.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.