ArticleArthritis research & therapy2021
Development of a model for predicting the 4-year risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in China: a longitudinal cohort study.
Article in Arthritis research & therapy, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 57 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prevalence of knee osteoarthritis in the Chinese population, 2013-2023: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of orthopaedic surgery and research · 2025Pooled it
- Evidence on risk factors for knee osteoarthritis in middle-older aged: a systematic review and meta analysis.Journal of orthopaedic surgery and research · 2023Pooled it
- Indoor and outdoor air pollution exposure in relation to incident symptomatic knee osteoarthritis: a 10-year longitudinal cohort study in China.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Association of latent class trajectories of frailty with incident symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in Chinese postmenopausal women: a nationwide cohort study from China.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Association of dynapenic abdominal obesity with prevalence and incidence of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis among the middle-aged and older Chinese.Aging clinical and experimental research · 2026Article
- Longitudinal association of frailty levels with knee osteoarthritis in middle-aged and elderly chinese: a longitudinal cohort study.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Development and validation of a simple nomogram for predicting knee osteoarthritis using movement evoked pain in a community setting.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Knee symptoms among college students and their relationship with physical activity behaviors: a cross-sectional survey.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- The bidirectional relationship between knee osteoarthritis and frailty in China: A longitudinal study.The Journal of frailty & aging · 2025Article
- An explainable machine learning-based prediction model for sarcopenia in elderly Chinese people with knee osteoarthritis.Aging clinical and experimental research · 2025Article
- Integration of longitudinal load-bearing tissue MRI radiomics and neural network to predict knee osteoarthritis incidence.Journal of orthopaedic translation · 2025Article
- Development and validation of a new nomogram for self-reported OA based on machine learning: a cross-sectional study.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Article
- The impact of social participation on activities of daily living in older adults with knee osteoarthritis: the chain mediating effects of sleep quality and multidimensional frailty.Frontiers in psychology · 2025Article
- Association between BMI and knee osteoarthritis in Chinese adults aged 45 years and older: evidence from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease analysis and the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Development and validation of a three-dimensional nomogram prediction model for knee osteoarthritis in middle-aged population.Journal of orthopaedic surgery and research · 2024Article
- The association of vitamin D with knee osteoarthritis pain: an analysis from the Osteoarthritis Initiative database.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Association between obesity measurement indexes and symptomatic knee osteoarthritis among the Chinese population: analysis from a nationwide longitudinal study.BMC musculoskeletal disorders · 2024Observational
- Association of sarcopenia and its prognostic value in symptomatic knee osteoarthritis among older people in China: the first longitudinal evidence from CHARLS.BMC geriatrics · 2024Article
- Association of improvement and worsening of depressive symptoms with arthritis.BMC geriatrics · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesWe aimed to develop a model for predicting the 4-year risk of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) based on survey data obtained via a random, nationwide sample of Chinese individuals.
methodsData was analyzed from 8193 middle-aged and older adults included in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). The incident of symptomatic KOA was defined as participants who were free of symptomatic KOA at baseline (CHARLS2011) and diagnosed with symptomatic KOA at the 4-year follow-up (CHARLS2015). The effects of potential predictors on the incident of KOA were estimated using logistic regression models and the final model was internally validated using the bootstrapping technique. Model performance was assessed based on discrimination-area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)-and calibration.
resultsA total of 815 incidents of KOA were identified at the 4-year follow-up, resulting in a cumulative incidence of approximately 9.95%. The final multivariable model included age, sex, waist circumference, residential area, difficulty with activities of daily living (ADLs)/instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), history of hip fracture, depressive symptoms, number of chronic comorbidities, self-rated health status, and level of moderate physical activity (MPA). The risk model showed good discrimination with AUC = 0.719 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.700-0.737) and optimism-corrected AUC = 0.712 after bootstrap validation. A satisfactory agreement was observed between the observed and predicted probability of incident symptomatic KOA. And a simple clinical score model was developed for quantifying the risk of KOA.
conclusionOur prediction model may aid the early identification of individuals at the greatest risk of developing KOA within 4 years.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.