ArticleBMC medicine2021
The epidemiologic impact and cost-effectiveness of new tuberculosis vaccines on multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in India and China.
Article in BMC medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 23 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 39 citations in OpenAlex.
- The neglected model validation of antimicrobial resistance transmission models - a systematic review.Antimicrobial resistance and infection control · 2025Pooled it
- Rethinking Tuberculosis Morbidity Quantification: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal of TB Disability Weights in Cost-Effectiveness Analyses.PharmacoEconomics · 2024Pooled it
- Economic costing methodologies for drug-resistant bacterial infections in humans in low-and middle-income countries: a systematic review.Health economics review · 2025Review
- Unravelling the Antibiotic Resistance: Molecular Insights and Combating Therapies.Applied biochemistry and biotechnology · 2025Review
- Driving innovation from discovery to access: Meeting report of the 7Gates open research · 2025Article
- Estimating the potential health and economic impacts of new tuberculosis vaccines under varying delivery strategies in Delhi and Gujarat, India: a modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2024Article
- Health and economic impacts of Vaccae vaccination incorporating active case finding in India and South Africa: a modelling study.BMJ public health · 2024Article
- An Exploratory Review of the Potential of Lytic Proteins and Bacteriophages for the Treatment of Tuberculosis.Microorganisms · 2024Review
- Bayesian Calibration to Address the Challenge of Antimicrobial Resistance: A Review.IEEE access : practical innovations, open solutions · 2024Article
- Bridging the gap: evaluating high TB burden country data needs to support the potential introduction of TB vaccines for adolescents and adults: a workshop report.Frontiers in tuberculosis · 2024Article
- Mapping the existing body of knowledge on new and repurposed TB vaccine implementation: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- New tuberculosis vaccines in India: modelling the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with M72/AS01BMC medicine · 2023Article
- New tuberculosis vaccines in India: Modelling the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with M72/AS01medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.The Lancet. Global health · 2023Article
- Recent Approaches for Downplaying Antibiotic Resistance: Molecular Mechanisms.BioMed research international · 2023Review
- The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2023Article
- Feasibility of novel adult tuberculosis vaccination in South Africa: a cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis.NPJ vaccines · 2022Article
- Updating age-specific contact structures to match evolving demography in a dynamic mathematical model of tuberculosis vaccination.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Article
- Cost-effectiveness of routine adolescent vaccination with an M72/AS01Nature communications · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
12 authors at 5 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundDespite recent advances through the development pipeline, how novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines might affect rifampicin-resistant and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (RR/MDR-TB) is unknown. We investigated the epidemiologic impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of hypothetical novel prophylactic prevention of disease TB vaccines on RR/MDR-TB in China and India.
methodsWe constructed a deterministic, compartmental, age-, drug-resistance- and treatment history-stratified dynamic transmission model of tuberculosis. We introduced novel vaccines from 2027, with post- (PSI) or both pre- and post-infection (P&PI) efficacy, conferring 10 years of protection, with 50% efficacy. We measured vaccine cost-effectiveness over 2027-2050 as USD/DALY averted-against 1-times GDP/capita, and two healthcare opportunity cost-based (HCOC), thresholds. We carried out scenario analyses.
resultsBy 2050, the P&PI vaccine reduced RR/MDR-TB incidence rate by 71% (UI: 69-72) and 72% (UI: 70-74), and the PSI vaccine by 31% (UI: 30-32) and 44% (UI: 42-47) in China and India, respectively. In India, we found both USD 10 P&PI and PSI vaccines cost-effective at the 1-times GDP and upper HCOC thresholds and P&PI vaccines cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold. In China, both vaccines were cost-effective at the 1-times GDP threshold. P&PI vaccine remained cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold with 49% probability and PSI vaccines at the upper HCOC threshold with 21% probability. The P&PI vaccine was predicted to avert 0.9 million (UI: 0.8-1.1) and 1.1 million (UI: 0.9-1.4) second-line therapy regimens in China and India between 2027 and 2050, respectively.
conclusionsNovel TB vaccination is likely to substantially reduce the future burden of RR/MDR-TB, while averting the need for second-line therapy. Vaccination may be cost-effective depending on vaccine characteristics and setting.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.