Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33623030›Full record

ArticleNature communications2021

Emergent vulnerability to climate-driven disturbances in European forests.

Giovanni Forzieri, Marco Girardello, Guido Ceccherini, Jonathan Spinoni, Luc Feyen, Henrik Hartmann, Pieter S A Beck, Gustau Camps-Valls, Gherado Chirici, Achille Mauri and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
30citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

30 citing papers in PubMed.

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  11. Review
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  14. Sensors for Digital Transformation in Smart Forestry.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
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  18. The weekly cycle of photosynthesis in Europe reveals the negative impact of particulate pollution on ecosystem productivity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
    Article
  19. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Giovanni ForzieriEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. giovanni.forzieri@ec.europa.eu.ORCID 0000-0002-5240-1303
Marco GirardelloEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.
Guido CeccheriniEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-1772-9554
Jonathan SpinoniEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.
Luc FeyenEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-4225-2962
Henrik HartmannDepartment of Biogeochemical Processes, Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-9926-5484
Pieter S A BeckEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.
Gustau Camps-VallsImage Processing Laboratory, Universitat de València, Paterna, Spain.ORCID 0000-0003-1683-2138
Gherado ChiriciDepartment of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry, University of Florence, Florence, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-0669-5726
Achille MauriFaculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Alessandro CescattiEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Forest disturbance regimes are expected to intensify as Earth's climate changes. Quantifying forest vulnerability to disturbances and understanding the underlying mechanisms is crucial to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, observational evidence is largely missing at regional to continental scales. Here, we quantify the vulnerability of European forests to fires, windthrows and insect outbreaks during the period 1979-2018 by integrating machine learning with disturbance data and satellite products. We show that about 33.4 billion tonnes of forest biomass could be seriously affected by these disturbances, with higher relative losses when exposed to windthrows (40%) and fires (34%) compared to insect outbreaks (26%). The spatial pattern in vulnerability is strongly controlled by the interplay between forest characteristics and background climate. Hotspot regions for vulnerability are located at the borders of the climate envelope, in both southern and northern Europe. There is a clear trend in overall forest vulnerability that is driven by a warming-induced reduction in plant defence mechanisms to insect outbreaks, especially at high latitudes.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeForestsBiomassEuropeModels, TheoreticalTime Factors

Identifiers

PMID33623030
PMCPMC7902618

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.