Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33623028›Full record

ArticleNature communications2021

Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield.

Xuhui Wang, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliot, Nathaniel D Mueller, Philippe Ciais, Jonas Jägermeyr, James Gerber, Patrice Dumas, Chenzhi Wang, Hui Yang and 12 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
36citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

36 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  3. Human imprints on global riverfronts.Nature communications · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Xuhui WangSino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China. xuhui.wang@pku.edu.cn.ORCID 0000-0003-0818-9816
Christoph MüllerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-9491-3550
Joshua ElliotUniversity of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA.
Nathaniel D MuellerDepartment of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1857-5104
Philippe CiaisSino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0001-8560-4943
Jonas JägermeyrUniversity of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8368-0018
James GerberInstitute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6890-0481
Patrice DumasCentre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement, Nogent sur Marne, 94130, France.ORCID 0000-0002-3896-7589
Chenzhi WangSino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0002-1756-4887
Hui YangSino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China.
Laurent LiLaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 75005, Paris, France.ORCID 0000-0002-3855-3976
Delphine DeryngClimate Analytics, 10969, Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-6214-7241
Christian FolberthDepartment of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University, 80333, Munich, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-6738-5238
Wenfeng LiuCollege of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, 100083, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0002-8699-3677
David MakowskiINRA, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, UMR 211 Agronomie, Thiverval-Grignon, 78850, France.ORCID 0000-0001-6385-3703
Stefan OlinDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 22362, Lund, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-8621-3300
Thomas A M PughDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 22362, Lund, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-6242-7371
Ashwan ReddyDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA.
Erwin SchmidInstitute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180, Vienna, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-4783-9666
Sujong JeongDepartment of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.ORCID 0000-0003-4586-4534
Feng ZhouSino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0001-6122-0611
Shilong PiaoSino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0001-8057-2292

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30-47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.

Identifiers

PMID33623028
PMCPMC7902844

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.