ArticleNature communications2021
Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 78 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
78 citing papers in PubMed.
- How climate change affects mosquito-borne infectious disease: The different trajectories of malaria and dengue.Science advances · 2026Review
- Climate-driven host ecology as a framework for zoonotic disease risk: Understanding transferability across arenavirus systems.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Article
- Mapping mosquitoes and their associated pathogens in West Africa.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2026Article
- Identifying Key Factors in Predicting Chikungunya and Zika Transmission Across French Polynesia and the French West Indies: A Data-Driven Probabilistic and Mathematical Modeling Approach.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Assessing the impact of intervention strategies on dengue dynamics in Shenzhen, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Dengue transmission risk in California under climate and land-use change: a semi-mechanistic modelling study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Mobility and non-household environments: Understanding dengue transmission patterns in urban contexts.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Hydrometeorological drivers of mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) abundance in an urbanized region of central Oklahoma.Journal of medical entomology · 2026Article
- A socio-hydro-epidemiological model for simulating trade-off between dengue infections, water shortages, and adaptive behavior.iScience · 2026Article
- Divergent urban-rural drivers of malaria vector ecology: a 6-year One Health longitudinal study in China.Parasites & vectors · 2026Article
- Climate change, planetary health and education in Africa - Some case studies and perspectives.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- The ecology of biting: buzzing through the main ecological, environmental and biological drivers of mosquito-borne diseases.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Review
- Accounting for spatial variation in weather factors predicts spatial variations in Culex quinquefasciatus abundance in the Desert Southwest.Parasites & vectors · 2026Article
- Rural dengue dynamics: the interplay of climate, built environment, and agriculture in Costa Rica.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Challenges for the effectiveness of infectious disease interventions during global change.Communications health · 2026Article
- Variations in annual dengue intensities are explained by temperature anomalies.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Warmer temperature accelerates senescence by modifying the aging-dependent changes in the mosquito transcriptome, altering immunity, metabolism, and DNA repair.Immunity & ageing : I & A · 2025Article
- Dengue virus and lipid metabolism: unravelling the interplay for future therapeutic approaches.Emerging microbes & infections · 2025Review
- Sociodemographic and ecological factors associated with malaria and malaria recurrence risk in children in Msambweni, Kwale County, Kenya.Malaria journal · 2025Article
18 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
18 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28-85% for vectors, 44-88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.
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