ArticleAPMIS : acta pathologica, microbiologica, et immunologica Scandinavica2021
SARS-CoV-2 superspreading in cities vs the countryside.
Article in APMIS : acta pathologica, microbiologica, et immunologica Scandinavica, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- COVID-19 infections, recoveries, and mortality: an ANOVA model of locations and administrative areas in Saudi Arabia.Frontiers in public health · 2024Review
- Phylodynamic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 spread in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, highlights how metropolitan areas act as dispersal hubs for new variants.Microbial genomics · 2022Article
- Heterogeneity in testing for infectious diseases.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- SARS-CoV-2 superspreading in cities vs the countryside.APMIS : acta pathologica, microbiologica, et immunologica Scandinavica · 2021Article
- Prediction of Mental Health in Medical Workers During COVID-19 Based on Machine Learning.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: An Overview.Frontiers in public healthReview
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic was characterized by an initial rapid rise in new cases followed by a peak and a more erratic behaviour that varies between regions. This is not easy to reproduce with traditional SIR models, which predict a more symmetric epidemic. Here, we argue that superspreaders and population heterogeneity would predict such behaviour even in the absence of restrictions on social life. We present an agent-based lattice model of a disease spreading in a heterogeneous population. We predict that an epidemic driven by superspreaders will spread rapidly in cities, but not in the countryside where the sparse population limits the maximal number of secondary infections. This suggests that mitigation strategies should include restrictions on venues where people meet a large number of strangers. Furthermore, mitigating the epidemic in cities and in the countryside may require different levels of restrictions.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.