ArticleJournal of medical virology2021
Estimation of undetected symptomatic and asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 infection and prediction of its spread in the USA.
Article in Journal of medical virology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- The coming Omicron waves and factors affecting its spread after China reopening borders.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2023Article
- De novo design of anti-variant COVID-19 vaccine.Biology methods & protocols · 2023Article
- Comparative Assessment of Filtration- and Precipitation-Based Methods for the Concentration of SARS-CoV-2 and Other Viruses from Wastewater.Microbiology spectrum · 2022Article
- Urban monitoring, evaluation and application of COVID-19 listed vaccine effectiveness: a health code blockchain study.BMJ open · 2022Article
- Potential Application of SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Diagnostic Tests for the Detection of Infectious Individuals Attending Mass Gatherings - A Simulation Study.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2022Article
- Estimating the Direct Disability-Adjusted Life Years Associated With SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in the Republic of Ireland: The First Full Year.International journal of public health · 2022Article
- A novel hybrid SEIQR model incorporating the effect of quarantine and lockdown regulations for COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Estimation of Undetected Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in South Korea Using a Probabilistic Model.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Estimation of undetected symptomatic and asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 infection and prediction of its spread in the USA.Journal of medical virology · 2021Article
- Cost and social distancing dynamics in a mathematical model of COVID-19 with application to Ontario, Canada.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA.PloS one · 2021Article
- An epidemic model SIPHERD and its application for prediction of the spread of COVID-19 infection in India.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The reported COVID-19 cases in the United States of America have crossed over 10 million and a large number of infected cases are undetected whose estimation can be done if country-wide antibody testing is performed. In this study, we estimate this undetected fraction of the population by a modeling and simulation approach. We employ an epidemic model SIPHERD in which three categories of infection carriers, symptomatic, purely asymptomatic, and exposed are considered with different transmission rates that are taken dependent on the social distancing conditions, and the detection rate of the infected carriers is taken dependent on the tests done per day. The model is first validated for Germany and South Korea and then applied for prediction of the total number of confirmed, active and dead, and daily new positive cases in the United States. Our study predicts the possible outcomes of the infection if social distancing conditions are relaxed or kept stringent. We estimate that around 30.1 million people are already infected, and in the absence of any vaccine, 66.2 million (range: 64.3-68.0) people, or 20% (range: 19.4-20.5) of the population will be infected by mid-February 21 if social distancing conditions are not made stringent. We find the infection-to-fatality ratio to be 0.65% (range: 0.63-0.67).
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