Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33619569›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2021

Bias in two-sample Mendelian randomization when using heritable covariable-adjusted summary associations.

Fernando Pires Hartwig, Kate Tilling, George Davey Smith, Deborah A Lawlor, Maria Carolina Borges

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 72 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
72citing papers in PubMed, 7 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

72 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  18. Genetically proxied blood pressure, vascular brain injury, and Alzheimer's disease pathology.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2025
    Article
  19. Observational
  20. Causal Effects of Breast Cancer Risk Factors across Hormone Receptor Breast Cancer Subtypes: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2025
    Article

12 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Fernando Pires HartwigPostgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-3729-0710
Kate TillingMedical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit, at the University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
George Davey SmithMedical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit, at the University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1407-8314
Deborah A LawlorMedical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit, at the University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Maria Carolina BorgesMedical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit, at the University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_UU_00011/1Medical Research Council MC_UU_00011/3Medical Research Council MC_UU_00011/6Medical Research Council MR/P014054/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTwo-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) allows the use of freely accessible summary association results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to estimate causal effects of modifiable exposures on outcomes. Some GWAS adjust for heritable covariables in an attempt to estimate direct effects of genetic variants on the trait of interest. One, both or neither of the exposure GWAS and outcome GWAS may have been adjusted for covariables.

methodsWe performed a simulation study comprising different scenarios that could motivate covariable adjustment in a GWAS and analysed real data to assess the influence of using covariable-adjusted summary association results in two-sample MR.

resultsIn the absence of residual confounding between exposure and covariable, between exposure and outcome, and between covariable and outcome, using covariable-adjusted summary associations for two-sample MR eliminated bias due to horizontal pleiotropy. However, covariable adjustment led to bias in the presence of residual confounding (especially between the covariable and the outcome), even in the absence of horizontal pleiotropy (when the genetic variants would be valid instruments without covariable adjustment). In an analysis using real data from the Genetic Investigation of ANthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium and UK Biobank, the causal effect estimate of waist circumference on blood pressure changed direction upon adjustment of waist circumference for body mass index.

conclusionsOur findings indicate that using covariable-adjusted summary associations in MR should generally be avoided. When that is not possible, careful consideration of the causal relationships underlying the data (including potentially unmeasured confounders) is required to direct sensitivity analyses and interpret results with appropriate caution.

Indexed as

Genome-Wide Association StudyMendelian Randomization AnalysisBiasBody Mass IndexCausalityHumansPolymorphism, Single Nucleotidebiasgenetic pleiotropygenome-wide association studysummary resultsTwo-sample Mendelian randomization

Identifiers

PMID33619569
PMCPMC8580279

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.