ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2021
Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers.
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44 citing papers in PubMed, 147 citations in OpenAlex.
- Analyzing Global Threat of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus Infection: A Comparative Study of a Time Series Model and Machine Learning Models Across 10 High-Risk Countries.Current microbiology · 2026Article
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- Interacting particle models on the impact of spatially heterogeneous human behavioral factors on dynamics of infectious diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
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- The trade-off between COVID-19 and mental diseases burden during a lockdown: Mathematical modeling of control measures.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Factors influencing user acceptance of weight management apps among Chinese obese individuals during the COVID-19 pandemic.Health policy and technology · 2023Article
- A mathematical model for the co-dynamics of COVID-19 and tuberculosis.Mathematics and computers in simulation · 2023Article
- Fractional study of the Covid-19 model with different types of transmissions.Kuwait journal of science · 2023Article
- Heavy-tailed distributions of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in spatiotemporal space.PloS one · 2023Article
- Analysis of COVID-19 mathematical model for predicting the impact of control measures in Rwanda.Informatics in medicine unlocked · 2023Article
- FOMO (fate of online media only) in infectious disease modeling: a review of compartmental models.International journal of dynamics and control · 2023Review
- A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy.PloS one · 2023Article
- On the Duration of an Epidemic.Differential equations and dynamical systems · 2022Article
- Evaluations of COVID-19 epidemic models with multiple susceptible compartments using exponential and non-exponential distribution for disease stages.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- The impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for a COVID-19 model with individual protection awareness.Physica A · 2022Article
- Unravelling the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic with the effect of vaccination, vertical transmission and hospitalization.Results in physics · 2022Article
- Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic with combined effects of relapse, reinfection and environmental contribution: A modeling analysis.Results in physics · 2022Article
- Comparative study of artificial neural network versus parametric method in COVID-19 data analysis.Results in physics · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 5 institutions in 6 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) is a novel virus that emerged in China in late 2019 and caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The epidemic has largely been controlled in China since March 2020, but continues to inflict severe public health and socioeconomic burden in other parts of the world. One of the major reasons for China's success for the fight against the epidemic is the effectiveness of its health care system and enlightenment (awareness) programs which play a vital role in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nigeria is currently witnessing a rapid increase of the epidemic likely due to its unsatisfactory health care system and inadequate awareness programs. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Our model incorporates awareness programs and different hospitalization strategies for mild and severe cases, to assess the effect of public awareness on the dynamics of COVID-19 infection. We fit the model to the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Nigeria from 29 March to 12 June 2020. We find that the epidemic could increase if awareness programs are not properly adopted. We presumed that the effect of awareness programs could be estimated. Further, our results suggest that the awareness programs and timely hospitalization of active cases are essential tools for effective control and mitigation of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria and beyond. Finally, we perform sensitive analysis to point out the key parameters that should be considered to effectively control the epidemic.
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