ArticleScientific reports2021
Modeling COVID-19 epidemics in an Excel spreadsheet to enable first-hand accurate predictions of the pandemic evolution in urban areas.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed.
- Self-Diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 from Saliva Samples at Home: Isothermal Amplification Enabled by Do-It-Yourself Portable Incubators and Laminated Poly-ethyl Sulfonate Membranes.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Modeling Global Monkeypox Infection Spread Data: A Comparative Study of Time Series Regression and Machine Learning Models.Current microbiology · 2023Article
- Prediction of the morbidity and mortality rates of COVID-19 in Egypt using non-extensive statistics.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Modeling Global COVID-19 Dissemination Data After the Emergence of Omicron Variant Using Multipronged Approaches.Current microbiology · 2022Article
- A Spreadsheet-Based Short Time Forecasting Method for the COVID-19 Pandemic.Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering : an international journal of engineering and technology · 2022Article
- Predicting COVID-19 Cases in South Korea Using Stringency and Niño Sea Surface Temperature Indices.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Rapid Response in an Uncertain Environment: Study of COVID-19 Scientific Research Under the Parallel Model.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2022Article
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- Computational simulations to dissect the cell immune response dynamics for severe and critical cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection.Computer methods and programs in biomedicine · 2021Article
- A particle swarm optimization approach for predicting the number of COVID-19 deaths.Scientific reports · 2021Review
- Privacy-Oriented Technique for COVID-19 Contact Tracing (PROTECT) Using Homomorphic Encryption: Design and Development Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2021Article
- Article
- An SEIARD epidemic model for COVID-19 in Mexico: Mathematical analysis and state-level forecast.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2020Article
- Individual Behaviors and COVID-19 Lockdown Exit Strategy: A Mid-Term Multidimensional Bio-economic Modeling Approach.Frontiers in public health · 2020Article
- Statistical Modeling for the Prediction of Infectious Disease Dissemination With Special Reference to COVID-19 Spread.Frontiers in public healthReview
- Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
COVID-19, the first pandemic of this decade and the second in less than 15 years, has harshly taught us that viral diseases do not recognize boundaries; however, they truly do discriminate between aggressive and mediocre containment responses. We present a simple epidemiological model that is amenable to implementation in Excel spreadsheets and sufficiently accurate to reproduce observed data on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemics in different regions [i.e., New York City (NYC), South Korea, Mexico City]. We show that the model can be adapted to closely follow the evolution of COVID-19 in any large city by simply adjusting parameters related to demographic conditions and aggressiveness of the response from a society/government to epidemics. Moreover, we show that this simple epidemiological simulator can be used to assess the efficacy of the response of a government/society to an outbreak. The simplicity and accuracy of this model will greatly contribute to democratizing the availability of knowledge in societies regarding the extent of an epidemic event and the efficacy of a governmental response.
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