ArticlePloS one2021
Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Uganda: Implications of complacency and early easing of lockdown.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 46 citations in OpenAlex.
- Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review.Epidemics · 2022Pooled it
- Modelling TB-HIV co-infection and evaluating intervention strategies in Thailand.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Caregiving dynamics and labor market outcomes of unorganized caregivers of older adults in Ghana.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2025Article
- Effects of a COVID-19 Public Health Lockdown on Drinking and Health Behavior Among Persons with HIV and with Unhealthy Alcohol use in Uganda.AIDS and behavior · 2023Article
- COVID-19 second wave and clinical characteristics of cases in Uganda: A retrospective cross-sectional survey of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases, March-June 2021.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the impact of vaccination: modelling, analysis and simulations.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Validation framework for epidemiological models with application to COVID-19 models.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Wave under Vaccination Effects.Computation (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Analysis of HBV and COVID-19 Coinfection Model with Intervention Strategies.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2023Article
- Bifurcation and optimal control analysis of HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 co-infection model with numerical simulation.PloS one · 2023Article
- Investigating the Effects of Intervention Strategies on Pneumonia and HIV/AIDS Coinfection Model.BioMed research international · 2023Article
- A patchy theoretical model for the transmission dynamics of SARS-Cov-2 with optimal control.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in a partially comorbid community.Partial differential equations in applied mathematics : a spin-off of Applied Mathematics Letters · 2022Article
- Modeling nosocomial infection of COVID-19 transmission dynamics.Results in physics · 2022Article
- NICOV : a model to analyse impact of nutritional status and immunity on COVID-19.Medical & biological engineering & computing · 2022Article
- Projecting the Pandemic Trajectory through Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Impact of Infective Immigrants on COVID-19 Dynamics.Mathematical & computational applications · 2022Article
- Mathematical Model and Analysis on the Impact of Awareness Campaign and Asymptomatic Human Immigrants in the Transmission of COVID-19.BioMed research international · 2022Article
- Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics between healthcare workers and community.Results in physics · 2021Article
- Mathematical model for COVID-19 management in crowded settlements and high-activity areas.International journal of dynamics and control · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundUganda has a unique set up comprised of resource-constrained economy, social-economic challenges, politically diverse regional neighborhood and home to long-standing refuge crisis that comes from long and protracted conflicts of the great lakes. The devastation of the on-going global pandemic outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is likely to be escalated by these circumstances with expectations of the impact of the disease being severe. MATERIALS AND
methodsIn this study, we formulate a mathematical model that incorporates the currently known disease characteristics and tracks various intervention measures that the government of Uganda has implemented since the reporting of the first case in March 2020. We then evaluate these measures to understand levels of responsiveness and adherence to standard operating procedures and quantify their impact on the disease burden. Novel in this model was the unique aspect of modeling the trace-and-isolate protocol in which some of the latently infected individuals tested positive while in strict isolation centers thereby reducing their infectious period.
resultsThe study findings show that even with elimination of all imported cases at any given time it would take up to nine months to rid Uganda of the disease. The findings also show that the optimal timing of easing of lockdowns while mitigating the possibility of re-emergence of a second epidemic wave requires avoiding the scenario of releasing too-many-too-soon. It is even more worrying that enhancing contact tracing would only affect the magnitude and timing of the second wave but cannot prevent it altogether.
conclusionWe conclude that, given the prevailing circumstances, a phased-out lifting of lockdown measures, minimization of COVID-19 transmissibility within hospital settings, elimination of recruitment of infected individuals as well as enhanced contact tracing would be key to preventing overwhelming of the healthcare system that would come with dire consequences.
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