Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33616770›Full record

ArticleAnnals of surgical oncology2021

Surgical Predictive Model for Breast Cancer Patients Assessing Acute Postoperative Complications: The Breast Cancer Surgery Risk Calculator.

Michael M Jonczyk, Carla Suzanne Fisher, Russell Babbitt, Jessica K Paulus, Karen M Freund, Brian Czerniecki, Julie A Margenthaler, Albert Losken, Abhishek Chatterjee

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Annals of surgical oncology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Michael M JonczykDepartment of Surgery, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA. mjonczyk@tuftsmedicalcenter.org.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2507-6813
Carla Suzanne FisherDepartment of Surgery, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, USA.
Russell BabbittPlastic Surgery of Southern New England, PC, Fall River, MA, USA.
Jessica K PaulusDepartment of Medicine and Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.
Karen M FreundDepartment of Medicine and Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.
Brian CzernieckiDepartment of Breast Oncology, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, FL, USA.
Julie A MargenthalerDepartment of Surgery, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO, USA.
Albert LoskenDivision of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Abhishek ChatterjeeClinical and Translational Science Graduate Program, Tufts University's Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Boston, MA, USA.

Funding

CTSA Graduate ProgramTL1TR002546 · NCATS · TUFTS UNIVERSITY BOSTON · PI KENT, DAVID M · 2018 to 2022
$4.2M
American Cancer Society CRP-17-112-06-COUNNCATS NIH HHS TL1 TR002546NIH Clinical Center TL1TR002546
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPrognostic tools, such as risk calculators, improve the patient-physician informed decision-making process. These tools are limited for breast cancer patients when assessing surgical complication risk preoperatively.

objectiveIn this study, we aimed to assess predictors associated with acute postoperative complications for breast cancer patients and then develop a predictive model that calculates a complication probability using patient risk factors.

methodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database from 2005 to 2017. Women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ or invasive breast cancer who underwent either breast conservation or mastectomy procedures were included in this predictive modeling scheme. Four models were built using logistic regression methods to predict the following composite outcomes: overall, infectious, hematologic, and internal organ complications. Model performance, accuracy and calibration measures during internal/external validation included area under the curve, Brier score, and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, respectively.

resultsA total of 163,613 women met the inclusion criteria. The area under the curve for each model was as follows: overall, 0.70; infectious, 0.67; hematologic, 0.84; and internal organ, 0.74. Brier scores were all between 0.04 and 0.003. Model calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic found all p-values to be > 0.05. Using model coefficients, individualized risk can be calculated on the web-based Breast Cancer Surgery Risk Calculator (BCSRc) platform ( www.breastcalc.org ).

conclusionWe developed an internally and externally validated risk calculator that estimates a breast cancer patient's unique risk of acute complications following each surgical intervention. Preoperative use of the BCSRc can potentially help stratify patients with an increased complication risk and improve expectations during the decision-making process.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsBreastFemaleHumansMastectomyPostoperative ComplicationsRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID33616770
PMCPMC8355048

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.