ArticleERJ open research2021
Underestimation of COVID-19 mortality during the pandemic.
Article in ERJ open research, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) excess mortality outcomes associated with pandemic effects study (COPES): A systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Premature termination of unemployment benefits increased COVID-19 transmission and deaths in the USA.Nature human behaviour · 2026Article
- SARS-CoV-2 fusion-peptide-directed antibodies are elicited by natural infection and can mediate broad sarbecovirus neutralization.Cell reports · 2026Article
- Retrospective estimate of COVID-19 infections in nine Colombian cities in 2020.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- REACH-OUT: Race, Ethnicity, and Air Pollution in COVID-19 Hospitalization OUTcomes.Research report (Health Effects Institute) · 2025Article
- Neighborhood environmental vulnerability factors strongly drove COVID-19 fatality and excess all-cause mortality in New York City, while long-term air pollutant associations were weak and varied.The Science of the total environment · 2025Article
- Excess All-Cause Mortality by Age and Gender During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2020-2022.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2025Article
- Consistency of Daily Number of Reported COVID-19 Cases in 191 Countries From 2020 to 2022: Comparative Analysis of 2 Major Data Sources.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2025Article
- Using Quantitative Bias Analysis to Adjust for Misclassification of COVID-19 Outcomes: An Applied Example of Inhaled Corticosteroids and COVID-19 Outcomes.Pharmacoepidemiology and drug safety · 2025Article
- COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy prevalence in Mexico: A systematic review and metanalysis.Vaccine: X · 2024Review
- Excess Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Southern Iran: Estimating the Absolute Count and Relative Risk Using Ecological Data.Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi · 2024Article
- Article
- Performance of MassARRAY system for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 compared to real-time PCR.European journal of microbiology & immunology · 2023Article
- Comparing COVID-19 pandemic health responses in two high-income island nations: Iceland and New Zealand.Scandinavian journal of public health · 2023Review
- Article
- Article
- Length of Hospital Stay and Survival of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients During the Second Wave of the Pandemic: A Single Centre Retrospective Study from Slovenia.Zdravstveno varstvo · 2022Article
- COVID-19 mortality rate determinants in selected Eastern European countries.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Exploratory analysis of the suitability of data from the civil registration system for estimating excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Faridabad district of India.The Indian journal of medical research · 2022Article
- Leading causes of excess mortality in Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021: A death certificates study in a middle-income country.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThere has been considerable international variation in mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of this study was to investigate the differences between mortality registered as due to COVID-19 and the excess all-cause mortality reported in countries worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic.
methodsEcological analysis of 22 countries compared 5-year historical all-cause mortality, reported all-cause mortality and expected all-cause mortality (calculated as historical mortality plus the reported deaths attributed to COVID-19). Data available from the first week of January 2020 to that most recently available were analysed.
resultsCompared to the preceding 5 years, there was an excess of 716 616 deaths, of which 64.3% were attributed to COVID-19. The proportion of deaths registered as COVID-19-related/excess deaths varied markedly between countries, ranging between 30% and 197% in those countries that had an excess of deaths during the period of observation. In most countries where a definite peak in COVID-19-related deaths occurred, the increase in reported all-cause mortality preceded the increase in COVID-19 reported mortality. During the latter period of observation, a few countries reported fewer all-cause deaths than the historical figures.
conclusionThe increases in all-cause mortality preceded the increase in COVID-19 mortality in most countries that had definite spikes in COVID-19 mortality. The number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 was underestimated by at least 35%. Together these findings suggest that calculation of excess all-cause mortality is a better predictor of COVID-19 mortality than the reported rates, in those countries experiencing definite increases in mortality.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.