ArticleEnvironmental research2021
The role of seasonality in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic.
Article in Environmental research, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 151 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
151 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 286 citations in OpenAlex.
- A meta-analysis result: Uneven influences of season, geo-spatial scale and latitude on relationship between meteorological factors and the COVID-19 transmission.Environmental research · 2022Pooled it
- The impact of geo-environmental factors on global COVID-19 transmission: A review of evidence and methodology.The Science of the total environment · 2022Pooled it
- Effectiveness of contact tracing in the control of infectious diseases: a systematic review.The Lancet. Public health · 2022Pooled it
- Inferring Seasonal Modulation of Early SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility from Cross-Country Environmental and Population-Level Predictors.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Physics-guided framework for climate dependent disease prediction: coupling compartment model with deep learning.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Imported SARS-CoV-2 Infections at N'djili International Airport in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo: An Epidemiological and Genomic Analysis.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2026Article
- Impacts of relaxed mask policies on COVID-19 epidemics: a modeling study in South Korea.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Estimating the effect of self-protection on transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany in 2021: a modelling study.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Assessing the Impact of Timing and Coverage of United States COVID-19 Vaccination Campaigns: A Multi-Model Approach.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- The urban infection susceptibility index and its application in cities of China.Biosafety and health · 2026Article
- Semiannual seasonality of COVID-19 with alternating peaks in winter and summer.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Incidence and temporal distribution of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in the municipal wastewaters of the Buffalo City region, Eastern Cape, South Africa.Global epidemiology · 2025Article
- Development of two-dimension epidemic prediction model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Traffic-driven spatio-temporal prediction for fine-scale epidemic outbreaks in China.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Effects of individual variation and seasonal vaccination on disease risks.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Seasonal, weekly, and individual variations in long-term use of wearable medical devices for diabetes management.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- The prognostic value of Clinical Frailty Scale in COVID-19 pneumonia across different pandemic phases: a comparison between the first and the fourth wave.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Spatio-temporal forecasting of COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands for source and contact tracing.International journal of population data science · 2025Article
- Seasonal and periodic patterns in US COVID-19 mortality using the Variable Bandpass Periodic Block Bootstrap.PloS one · 2025Article
- Did the COVID-19 quarantine policies applied in Cochabamba, Bolivia mitigated cases successfully? an interrupted time series analysis.Global health action · 2024Article
91 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
It has been reported that the transmission of COVID-19 can be influenced by the variation of environmental factors due to the seasonal cycle. However, its underlying mechanism in the current and onward transmission pattern remains unclear owing to the limited data and difficulties in separating the impacts of social distancing. Understanding the role of seasonality in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is imperative in formulating public health interventions. Here, the seasonal signals of the COVID-19 time series are extracted using the EEMD method, and a modified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model incorporated with seasonal factors is introduced to quantify its impact on the current COVID-19 pandemic. Seasonal signals decomposed via the EEMD method indicate that infectivity and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 are both higher in colder climates. The quantitative simulation shows that the cold season in the Southern Hemisphere countries caused a 59.71 ± 8.72% increase of the total infections, while the warm season in the Northern Hemisphere countries contributed to a 46.38 ± 29.10% reduction. COVID-19 seasonality is more pronounced at higher latitudes, where larger seasonal amplitudes of environmental indicators are observed. Seasonality alone is not sufficient to curb the virus transmission to an extent that intervention measures are no longer needed, but health care capacity should be scaled up in preparation for new surges in COVID-19 cases in the upcoming cold season. Our study highlights the necessity of considering seasonal factors when formulating intervention strategies.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.