ArticleISA transactions2022
Generalized SIR (GSIR) epidemic model: An improved framework for the predictive monitoring of COVID-19 pandemic.
Article in ISA transactions, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 63 citations in OpenAlex.
- Application of Artificial Intelligence-Based Regression Methods in the Problem of COVID-19 Spread Prediction: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
- Social and economic variables explain COVID-19 diffusion in European regions.Scientific reports · 2024Article
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- Deep learning infused SIRVD model for COVID-19 prediction: XGBoost-SIRVD-LSTM approach.Frontiers in medicine · 2024Article
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- Multi-source dynamic ensemble prediction of infectious disease and application in COVID-19 case.Journal of thoracic disease · 2023Article
- STG-Net: A COVID-19 prediction network based on multivariate spatio-temporal information.Biomedical signal processing and control · 2023Article
- How containment policy and medical service impact COVID-19 transmission: A cross-national comparison among China, the USA, and Sweden.International journal of disaster risk reduction : IJDRR · 2023Article
- Analysis of SIRVI model with time dependent coefficients and the effect of vaccination on the transmission rate and COVID-19 epidemic waves.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- The Impact of Preventive Strategies Adopted during Large Events on the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of the Tokyo Olympics to Provide Guidance for Future Large Events.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Dynamic transmission modeling of COVID-19 to support decision-making in Brazil: A scoping review in the pre-vaccine era.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- An optimization framework for COVID-19 vaccine allocation and inventory management: A case study.Applied soft computing · 2023Article
- Prescriptive Analytics-Based SIRM Model for Predicting Covid-19 Outbreak.Global journal of flexible systems management · 2023Article
- LiteCovidNet: A lightweight deep neural network model for detection of COVID-19 using X-ray images.International journal of imaging systems and technology · 2022Article
- An extended epidemic model with vaccination: Weak-immune SIRVI.Physica A · 2022Article
- ECG-iCOVIDNet: Interpretable AI model to identify changes in the ECG signals of post-COVID subjects.Computers in biology and medicine · 2022Article
- A comparative study for predictive monitoring of COVID-19 pandemic.Applied soft computing · 2022Article
- On the fractional SIRD mathematical model and control for the transmission of COVID-19: The first and the second waves of the disease in Iran and Japan.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- An Enhanced SEIR Model for Prediction of COVID-19 with Vaccination Effect.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Novel coronavirus respiratory disease COVID-19 has caused havoc in many countries across the globe. In order to contain infection of this highly contagious disease, most of the world population is constrained to live in a complete or partial lockdown for months together with a minimal human-to-human interaction having far reaching consequences on countries' economy and mental well-being of their citizens. Hence, there is a need for a good predictive model for the health advisory bodies and decision makers for taking calculated proactive measures to contain the pandemic and maintain a healthy economy. This paper extends the mathematical theory of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) epidemic model and proposes a Generalized SIR (GSIR) model that is an integrative model encompassing multiple waves of daily reported cases. Existing growth function models of epidemic have been shown as the special cases of the GSIR model. Dynamic modeling of the parameters reflect the impact of policy decisions, social awareness, and the availability of medication during the pandemic. GSIR framework can be utilized to find a good fit or predictive model for any pandemic. The study is performed on the COVID-19 data for various countries with detailed results for India, Brazil, United States of America (USA), and World. The peak infection, total expected number of COVID-19 cases and thereof deaths, time-varying reproduction number, and various other parameters are estimated from the available data using the proposed methodology. The proposed GSIR model advances the existing theory and yields promising results for continuous predictive monitoring of COVID-19 pandemic.
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