ArticleMalaria journal2021
Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia.
Article in Malaria journal, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 45 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
45 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 165 citations in OpenAlex.
- Characterisation of between-cluster heterogeneity in malaria cluster randomised trials to inform future sample size calculations.Nature communications · 2025Pooled it
- Prevalence of malaria and associated risk factors in Loka Abaya district, Sidama regional state, Southern Ethiopia.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Assessment of malaria prevalence and determinants among clinically suspected individuals attending Dejen Primary Hospital, East Gojjam Zone, northwest Ethiopia.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Mapping malaria risk using geospatial and AHP approaches in Nsanje District, Malawi.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- Environmental factors influencing mosquito breeding and malaria transmission using geospatial technologies in the Wabi Shebele sub-basin, Ethiopia.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- A Topographic Analysis of Malaria Transmission - Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 2019-2022.China CDC weekly · 2026Article
- Household malaria risk perception in Ethiopia: multilevel and spatial analysis using the 2022-2023 National Health Equity Survey.BMC public health · 2026Article
- A six years trend analysis of malaria prevalence in Central Ethiopia Region.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Climatic and governance determinants of malaria transmission in Rivers State, Nigeria.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Analysis of a seven-year trend in malaria prevalence at Pawe General Hospital, Northwestern Ethiopia: a retrospective cross-sectional study.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Strategies and approaches to vector control effectiveness toward the elimination of malaria in mainland Tanzania: An implementation case study analysis.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Heterogeneity of malaria transmission in urban settings in Ethiopia: A seroprevalence and risk factor analysis.PloS one · 2026Article
- Extreme weather events and vector-borne diseases: Quantifying the epidemiological effect of Hurricane Julia on malaria transmission in Colombia.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Evaluation of MTego and BG-Sentinel traps for malaria and arbovirus vector surveillance in Cabo Verde.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Unraveling the spatiotemporal clustering of malaria incidence and modeling a decade of epidemiological data in Jimma Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Climate-driven malaria mortality among children in malaria-endemic areas of Uganda.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling and prediction of malaria cases in Tanzania mainland (2016-2023): unveiling associations with climate and intervention factors.International journal of health geographics · 2025Article
- Modelling the effects of precipitation and temperature on malaria incidence in coastal and western Kenya.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling and mapping of malaria risk among children under five years of age in Ghana.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Malaria prevalence dynamics and risk covariates among children under 5 in Ghana: insights from a Bayesian multilevel approach.BMJ open · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundClimate and environmental factors could be one of the primary factors that drive malaria transmission and it remains to challenge the malaria elimination efforts. Hence, this study was aimed to evaluate the effects of meteorological factors and topography on the incidence of malaria in the Boricha district in Sidama regional state of Ethiopia.
methodsMalaria morbidity data recorded from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from all public health facilities of Boricha District in the Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. The monthly malaria cases, rainfall, and temperature (minimum, maximum, and average) were used to fit the ARIMA model to compute the malaria transmission dynamics and also to forecast future incidence. The effects of the meteorological variables and altitude were assessed with a negative binomial regression model using R version 4.0.0. Cross-correlation analysis was employed to compute the delayed effects of meteorological variables on malaria incidence.
resultsTemperature, rainfall, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the study area. A regression model of previous monthly rainfall at lag 0 and Lag 2, monthly mean maximum temperature at lag 2 and Lag 3, and monthly mean minimum temperature at lag 3 were found as the best prediction model for monthly malaria incidence. Malaria cases at 1801-1900 m above sea level were 1.48 times more likely to occur than elevation ≥ 2000 m.
conclusionsMeteorological factors and altitude were the major drivers of malaria incidence in the study area. Thus, evidence-based interventions tailored to each determinant are required to achieve the malaria elimination target of the country.
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