ArticleRevista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical2021
Feasibility of very short-term forecast models for COVID-19 hospital-based surveillance.
Article in Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
introductionWe evaluated the performance of Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) and Holt's models to forecast the weekly COVID-19 reported cases in six units of a large hospital.
methodsCases reported from epidemiologic weeks (EW) 12-37 were selected as the training period, and from EW 38-41 as the test period.
resultsThe models performed well in forecasting cases within one or two weeks following the end of the time-series, but forecasts for a more distant period were inaccurate.
conclusionsBoth models offered reasonable performance in very short-term forecasts for confirmed cases of COVID-19.
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