ArticleEuropean journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie2021
Mortality Forecasting with the Lee-Carter Method: Adjusting for Smoothing and Lifespan Disparity.
Article in European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Lifespan variation during mortality transition in Bangladesh: evidence from a local surveillance and global estimates.Population health metrics · 2026Article
- National Burden of Breast Cancer in Saudi Arabia, 1990-2023, With Forecasts to 2050: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.Evidance health sciences · 2026Article
- Unifying mortality forecasting model: an investigation of the COM-Poisson distribution in the GAS model for improved projections.Lifetime data analysis · 2024Article
- Constructing a seventeen-gene signature model for non-obstructive azoospermia based on integrated transcriptome analyses and WGCNA.Reproductive biology and endocrinology : RB&E · 2023Article
- Article
- Sensitivity and uncertainty in the Lee-Carter mortality model.International journal of forecastingArticle
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
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Abstract
Reliable mortality forecasts are an essential component of healthcare policies in ageing societies. The Lee-Carter method and its later variants are widely accepted probabilistic approaches to mortality forecasting, due to their simplicity and the straightforward interpretation of the model parameters. This model assumes an invariant age component and linear time component for forecasting. We apply the Lee-Carter method on smoothed mortality rates obtained by LASSO-type regularization and hence adjust the time component with the observed lifespan disparity. Smoothing with LASSO produces less error during the fitting period than do spline-based smoothing techniques. As a more informative indicator of longevity, matching with lifespan disparity makes the time component more reflective of mortality improvements. The forecasts produced by the new method were more accurate during out-of-sample evaluation and provided optimistic forecasts for many low-mortality countries.
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