ArticleBMC public health2021
Forecasting the incidence of mumps in Chongqing based on a SARIMA model.
Article in BMC public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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17 citing papers in PubMed, 32 citations in OpenAlex.
- Sex- and age-specific transmission pathways of mumps: a mechanistic SEPIAR modeling study in Chengdu, China (2008-2019).BMC public health · 2026Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and LSTM-based simulation of mumps incidence in Ningbo, China from 2005 to 2024.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Early warning of hepatitis B epidemics in Henan Province, China, from 2014 to 2023 based on Baidu Index and Bayesian Structural Time Series model.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Article
- Three-stage interpretability analysis of influenza virus and meteorological correlation in Jiuquan City, 2016-2025: SARIMAX + TreeSHAP.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2026Article
- Forecasting Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis Incidence in Henan, China: A Comparative Study of Seasonal Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2026Article
- Impact of policy shifts and festival holidays on tuberculosis surveillance: a time-series analysis in Southwest China (2014-2024).Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Enhancing public health surveillance: SARIMAX model incorporating Baidu search index for HCV prediction in China.BMC medical research methodology · 2025Article
- Prediction analysis of human brucellosis cases in Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture Xinjiang China based on time series.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Estimating the Temporal Epidemiological Trends of Tuberculosis Incidence by Using an Advanced Theta Method.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Article
- Time series analyses based on the joint lagged effect analysis of pollution and meteorological factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and the construction of prediction model.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Research on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence forecasting using hybrid model in mainland China.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Time trend prediction and spatial-temporal analysis of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Guizhou Province, China, during 2014-2020.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Association between Meteorological Factors and Mumps and Models for Prediction in Chongqing, China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- A spatio-temporal autoregressive model for monitoring and predicting COVID infection rates.Journal of geographical systems · 2022Article
- Innovation Strategy of Cultivating Innovative Enterprise Talents for Young Entrepreneurs Under Higher Education.Frontiers in psychology · 2021Article
- Estimating the Effects of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Reductions in Tuberculosis Cases and the Epidemiological Trends in China: A Causal Impact Analysis.Infection and drug resistance · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMumps is classified as a class C infection disease in China, and the Chongqing area has one of the highest incidence rates in the country. We aimed to establish a prediction model for mumps in Chongqing and analyze its seasonality, which is important for risk analysis and allocation of resources in the health sector.
methodsData on incidence of mumps from January 2004 to December 2018 were obtained from Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention. The incidence of mumps from 2004 to 2017 was fitted using a seasonal autoregressive comprehensive moving average (SARIMA) model. The root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to compare the goodness of fit of the models. The 2018 incidence data were used for validation.
resultsFrom 2004 to 2018, a total of 159,181 cases (93,655 males and 65,526 females) of mumps were reported in Chongqing, with significantly more men than women. The age group of 0-19 years old accounted for 92.41% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (62.83%), followed by scattered children and children in kindergarten. The SARIMA(2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)
conclusionBased on the study findings, the incidence of mumps in Chongqing has an obvious seasonal trend, and SARIMA(2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)
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