ArticlePloS one2021
Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- The influence of meteorological factors on COVID-19 spread in Italy during the first and second wave.Environmental research · 2023Article
- Incidence rate and predictors of COVID-19 in the two largest cities of Burkina Faso - prospective cohort study in 2021 (ANRS-COV13).BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- What are the Effects of Climate Variables on COVID-19 Pandemic? A Systematic Review and Current Update.Advanced biomedical research · 2023Review
- Macro-level drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission: A data-driven analysis of factors contributing to epidemic growth during the first wave of outbreaks in the United States.Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology · 2022Article
- The natural thermal sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2.Infectious medicine · 2022Article
- Ventilation in worker dormitories and its impact on the spread of respiratory droplets.Sustainable cities and society · 2021Article
- Perspective of the Relationship between the Susceptibility to Initial SARS-CoV-2 Infectivity and Optimal Nasal Conditioning of Inhaled Air.International journal of molecular sciences · 2021Review
- Development of an Early Alert System for an Additional Wave of COVID-19 Cases Using a Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Associations between meteorology and COVID-19 in early studies: Inconsistencies, uncertainties, and recommendations.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
importanceIntensity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, and planning required to balance concerns of saving lives and avoiding economic collapse, could depend significantly on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmission is sensitive to seasonal changes.
objectiveHypothesis is that increasing temperature results in reduced SARS CoV-2 transmission and may help slow the increase of cases over time.
settingFifty representative Northern Hemisphere countries meeting specific criteria had sufficient COVID-19 case and meteorological data for analysis.
methodsRegression was used to find the relationship between the log of number of COVID-19 cases and temperature over time in 50 representative countries. To summarize the day-day variability, and reduce dimensionality, we selected a robust measure, Coefficient of Time (CT), for each location. The resulting regression coefficients were then used in a multivariable regression against meteorological, country-level and demographic covariates.
resultsMedian minimum daily temperature showed the strongest correlation with the reciprocal of CT (which can be considered as a rate associated with doubling time) for confirmed cases (adjusted R2 = 0.610, p = 1.45E-06). A similar correlation was found using median daily dewpoint, which was highly colinear with temperature, and therefore was not used in the analysis. The correlation between minimum median temperature and the rate of increase of the log of confirmed cases was 47% and 45% greater than for cases of death and recovered cases of COVID-19, respectively. This suggests the primary influence of temperature is on SARS-CoV-2 transmission more than COVID-19 morbidity. Based on the correlation between temperature and the rate of increase in COVID-19, it can be estimated that, between the range of 30 to 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a one degree increase is associated with a 1% decrease-and a one degree decrease could be associated with a 3.7% increase-in the rate of increase of the log of daily confirmed cases. This model of the effect of decreasing temperatures can only be verified over time as the pandemic proceeds through colder months.
conclusionsThe results suggest that boreal summer months are associated with slower rates of COVID-19 transmission, consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Knowledge of COVID-19 seasonality could prove useful in local planning for phased reductions social interventions and help to prepare for the timing of possible pandemic resurgence during cooler months.
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