ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2021
Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Accounting for Future Initiation of Statin Treatment.
Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Survival prediction landscape: an in-depth systematic literature review on activities, methods, tools, diseases, and databases.Frontiers in artificial intelligence · 2024Pooled it
- Delayed versus primary closure to minimize risk of surgical-site infection for complicated appendicitis: A secondary analysis of a randomized trial using counterfactual prediction modeling.Infection control and hospital epidemiology · 2024Trial
- Prediction of incident heart failure in individuals without prior cardiovascular disease: the SCORE2-HF risk model.European heart journal · 2026Article
- Prediction of incident heart failure in established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: the SMART2-HF model.European heart journal · 2026Article
- Precision medicine in type 2 diabetes: targeting SGLT2 inhibitor treatment for kidney protection.Diabetologia · 2026Observational
- Predicting disease progression under a "treatment-naive" counterfactual scenario in a competing risks framework.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2026Article
- Cholesterol-Lowering Mechanism ofNutrients · 2025Article
- PREVENT and PCE Models for Estimating ASCVD Risk Stratified by Statin Exposure.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Trends in statin prescription among osteoporosis patients: A retrospective cohort study using UK primary care data.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Separating Risk Prediction: Myocardial Infarction vs. Ischemic Stroke in 6.2M Screenings.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Dose-Response Associations of Lipid Traits With Coronary Artery Disease and Mortality.JAMA network open · 2024Article
- Age and sex specific thresholds for risk stratification of cardiovascular disease and clinical decision making: prospective open cohort study.BMJ medicine · 2024Article
- Making predictions under interventions: a case study from the PREDICT-CVD cohort in New Zealand primary care.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2024Article
- SCORE2-Diabetes: 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation in type 2 diabetes in Europe.European heart journal · 2023Article
- Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: the VTE-PREDICT risk score.European heart journal · 2023Article
- Estimation of recurrent atherosclerotic cardiovascular event risk in patients with established cardiovascular disease: the updated SMART2 algorithm.European heart journal · 2022Article
- Invited Commentary: Treatment Drop-in-Making the Case for Causal Prediction.American journal of epidemiology · 2021Article
- SCORE2-OP risk prediction algorithms: estimating incident cardiovascular event risk in older persons in four geographical risk regions.European heart journal · 2021Article
- SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe.European heart journal · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk-prediction models are used to identify high-risk individuals and guide statin initiation. However, these models are usually derived from individuals who might initiate statins during follow-up. We present a simple approach to address statin initiation to predict "statin-naive" CVD risk. We analyzed primary care data (2004-2017) from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink for 1,678,727 individuals (aged 40-85 years) without CVD or statin treatment history at study entry. We derived age- and sex-specific prediction models including conventional risk factors and a time-dependent effect of statin initiation constrained to 25% risk reduction (from trial results). We compared predictive performance and measures of public-health impact (e.g., number needed to screen to prevent 1 event) against models ignoring statin initiation. During a median follow-up of 8.9 years, 103,163 individuals developed CVD. In models accounting for (versus ignoring) statin initiation, 10-year CVD risk predictions were slightly higher; predictive performance was moderately improved. However, few individuals were reclassified to a high-risk threshold, resulting in negligible improvements in number needed to screen to prevent 1 event. In conclusion, incorporating statin effects from trial results into risk-prediction models enables statin-naive CVD risk estimation and provides moderate gains in predictive ability but had a limited impact on treatment decision-making under current guidelines in this population.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.