Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33594059›Full record

ArticleNature communications2021

Climate change, not human population growth, correlates with Late Quaternary megafauna declines in North America.

Mathew Stewart, W Christopher Carleton, Huw S Groucutt

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed
8.7field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 96 citations in OpenAlex.

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  13. Male mastodon landscape use changed with maturation (late Pleistocene, North America).Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Mathew Stewart *Extreme Events Research Group, Max Planck Institutes for Chemical Ecology, the Science of Human History, and Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany. mstewart@ice.mpg.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0413-8133
W Christopher Carleton *Extreme Events Research Group, Max Planck Institutes for Chemical Ecology, the Science of Human History, and Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany. wcarleton@ice.mpg.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7463-8638
Huw S GroucuttExtreme Events Research Group, Max Planck Institutes for Chemical Ecology, the Science of Human History, and Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany. hgroucutt@ice.mpg.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9111-1720
Max Planck Institute for Chemical Ecology · DEUniversity of Cologne · DE

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The disappearance of many North American megafauna at the end of the Pleistocene is a contentious topic. While the proposed causes for megafaunal extinction are varied, most researchers fall into three broad camps emphasizing human overhunting, climate change, or some combination of the two. Understanding the cause of megafaunal extinctions requires the analysis of through-time relationships between climate change and megafauna and human population dynamics. To do so, many researchers have used summed probability density functions (SPDFs) as a proxy for through-time fluctuations in human and megafauna population sizes. SPDFs, however, conflate process variation with the chronological uncertainty inherent in radiocarbon dates. Recently, a new Bayesian regression technique was developed that overcomes this problem-Radiocarbon-dated Event-Count (REC) Modelling. Here we employ REC models to test whether declines in North American megafauna species could be best explained by climate changes, increases in human population densities, or both, using the largest available database of megafauna and human radiocarbon dates. Our results suggest that there is currently no evidence for a persistent through-time relationship between human and megafauna population levels in North America. There is, however, evidence that decreases in global temperature correlated with megafauna population declines.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeExtinction, BiologicalPopulation GrowthAnimalsArchaeologyGeographyHumansMammothsMastodonsModels, TheoreticalNorth AmericaOxygen IsotopesRegression AnalysisTime FactorsOxygen-18Oxygen Isotopes

Identifiers

PMID33594059
PMCPMC7886903
OpenAlexW3130684078

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.