Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33594006›Full record

ArticlemSystems2021

Machine Learning Reveals Time-Varying Microbial Predictors with Complex Effects on Glucose Regulation.

Oliver Aasmets, Kreete Lüll, Jennifer M Lang, Calvin Pan, Johanna Kuusisto, Krista Fischer, Markku Laakso, Aldons J Lusis, Elin Org

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in mSystems, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
1.3field-weighted citation impact, top 20% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 25 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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  4. Review
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  8. Article
  9. The gut microbiome: a core regulator of metabolism.The Journal of endocrinology · 2023
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.

Oliver AasmetsInstitute of Genomics, Estonian Genome Centre, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.
Kreete LüllInstitute of Genomics, Estonian Genome Centre, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.
Jennifer M LangDepartment of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA.
Calvin PanDepartment of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA.
Johanna KuusistoInstitute of Clinical Medicine, Internal Medicine, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, and Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland.
Krista FischerInstitute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.
Markku LaaksoInstitute of Clinical Medicine, Internal Medicine, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, and Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland.
Aldons J LusisDepartment of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA.
Elin OrgInstitute of Genomics, Estonian Genome Centre, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia elin.org@ut.ee.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8688-9717
University of Tartu · EEUniversity of California, Los Angeles · USUniversity of Eastern Finland · FI

Funding

Systems genomics of metabolic syndrome traitsP01HL028481 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI LUSIS, ALDONS JAKE · 1985 to 2019
$50.2M
Systems Genetics Dissection of Non-alcoholic SteatohepatitisR01DK117850 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI Aldons Jake Lusis · 2019 to 2026
$4.6M
Gut microbiota and metabolite interactions in atherosclerosisR01HL144651 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI LUSIS, ALDONS JAKE, REY, FEDERICO E · 2019 to 2022
$2.6M
NHLBI NIH HHS P01 HL028481NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL144651NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK117850
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been increasing globally, and a growing body of evidence links type 2 diabetes with altered microbiota composition. Type 2 diabetes is preceded by a long prediabetic state characterized by changes in various metabolic parameters. We tested whether the gut microbiome could have predictive potential for T2D development during the healthy and prediabetic disease stages. We used prospective data of 608 well-phenotyped Finnish men collected from the population-based Metabolic Syndrome in Men (METSIM) study to build machine learning models for predicting continuous glucose and insulin measures in a shorter (1.5 year) and longer (4 year) period. Our results show that the inclusion of the gut microbiome improves prediction accuracy for modeling T2D-associated parameters such as glycosylated hemoglobin and insulin measures. We identified novel microbial biomarkers and described their effects on the predictions using interpretable machine learning techniques, which revealed complex linear and nonlinear associations. Additionally, the modeling strategy carried out allowed us to compare the stability of model performance and biomarker selection, also revealing differences in short-term and long-term predictions. The identified microbiome biomarkers provide a predictive measure for various metabolic traits related to T2D, thus providing an additional parameter for personal risk assessment. Our work also highlights the need for robust modeling strategies and the value of interpretable machine learning.

Indexed as

gut microbiomemachine learningprediction analysisT2Dtype 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID33594006
PMCPMC8573957
OpenAlexW3132721801

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.