ArticleJournal of translational medicine2021
A nomogram to predict the high-risk RS in HR+/HER2-breast cancer patients older than 50 years of age.
Article in Journal of translational medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Defining the optimal Ki67 cutoff values for survival prediction in neoadjuvant chemotherapy-treated patients with breast cancer.Frontiers in surgery · 2025Article
- Nomogram prediction of the 70-gene signature (MammaPrint) binary and quartile categorized risk using medical history, imaging features and clinicopathological data among Chinese breast cancer patients.Journal of translational medicine · 2023Article
- A Novel Surrogate Nomogram Capable of Predicting OncotypeDX Recurrence Score©.Journal of personalized medicine · 2022Article
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9 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe 21-gene recurrence score (RS) testing can predict the prognosis for luminal breast cancer patients. Meanwhile, patients > 50 years with RS > 25 have improved survival with adjuvant chemotherapy. The current study aimed to develop a nomogram with routine parameters to predict RS.
methodsWe included patients diagnosed with hormone receptor (HR)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2)-negative who underwent the 21-gene RS testing and aged > 50 years. The primary outcome was high-risk RS (> 25). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify significant predictors. A predictive nomogram based on logistic model was developed and evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The nomogram was internally validated for discrimination and calibration with bootstrapping method, and externally validated in another cohort. We then assessed the nomogram in different subgroups of patients and compared it with several published models.
resultsA total of 1100 patients were included. Five clinicopathological parameters were used as predictors of a high-risk RS, including tumor grade, histologic subtype, ER expression, PR expression, and Ki-67 index. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.798 (95% CI 0.772-0.825) and optimism adjusted AUC was 0.794 (95% CI 0.781-0.822). External validation demonstrated an AUC value of 0.746 (95% CI 0.685-0.807), which had no significant difference with the training cohort (P = 0.124). Calibration plots indicated that the nomogram-predicted results were well fitted to the actual outcomes in both internal and external validation. The nomogram had better discriminate ability in patients who had tumors > 2 cm (AUC = 0.847, 95% CI 0.804-0.890). When compared with four other existing models, similar AUC was observed between our nomogram and the model constructed by discriminate Lee et al.
conclusionsWe developed a user-friendly nomogram to predict the high-risk RS in luminal breast cancer patients who were older than 50 years of age, which could guide treatment decision making for those who have no access to the 21-gene RS testing.
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