ArticlePLoS computational biology2021
Estimating the extrinsic incubation period of malaria using a mechanistic model of sporogony.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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22 citing papers in PubMed, 42 citations in OpenAlex.
- Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite loads in Anopheles gambiae s.l. across agro-ecological zones of Benin: a cross-sectional field study.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- Predictive Modelling of Climate-Driven Malaria Transmission for Optimal Control Using a Coupled SEIR-SEI and GIS Framework.Public health challenges · 2026Article
- Warming temperatures reduce lifespan and vectorial capacity of Anopheles mosquitoes in Ghana.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Article
- Historical and Projected Impact of Global Climate Change on the Extrinsic Incubation ofEcology and evolution · 2025Article
- Influence of biophysical and biochemical cues on Plasmodium sporozoite dynamics in skin tissue.Parasites & vectors · 2025Review
- Heterogeneous impacts for malaria control from larviciding across villages and considerations for monitoring and evaluation.PLoS pathogens · 2025Article
- Modelling the effects of diurnal temperature variation on malaria infection dynamics in mosquitoes.Communications biology · 2025Article
- Changing Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence in two villages of northeastern Tanzania between 2003 and 2021 in relation to vectors, interventions and climatic factors.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Impact of the intensity of infection in birds on Plasmodium development within Culex pipiens mosquitoes.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Mathematical Assessment of the Role of Intervention Programs for Malaria Control.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Estimating the effects of temperature on transmission of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Investigating the dose-dependency of the midgut escape barrier using a mechanistic model of within-mosquito dengue virus population dynamics.PLoS pathogens · 2024Article
- Quantification of sporozoite expelling byeLife · 2024Article
- Impact of climate change on temperature variations and extrinsic incubation period of malaria parasites in Chennai, India: implications for its disease transmission potential.Parasites & vectors · 2024Article
- Mathematical assessment of the role of intervention programs for malaria control.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Environmental Change, Changing Biodiversity, and Infections-Lessons for Kidney Health Community.Kidney international reports · 2023Review
- Targeting malaria parasites inside mosquitoes: ecoevolutionary consequences.Trends in parasitology · 2022Review
- Omitting age-dependent mosquito mortality in malaria models underestimates the effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Hotspots and super-spreaders: Modelling fine-scale malaria parasite transmission using mosquito flight behaviour.PLoS pathogens · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
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Abstract
During sporogony, malaria-causing parasites infect a mosquito, reproduce and migrate to the mosquito salivary glands where they can be transmitted the next time blood feeding occurs. The time required for sporogony, known as the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), is an important determinant of malaria transmission intensity. The EIP is typically estimated as the time for a given percentile, x, of infected mosquitoes to develop salivary gland sporozoites (the infectious parasite life stage), which is denoted by EIPx. Many mechanisms, however, affect the observed sporozoite prevalence including the human-to-mosquito transmission probability and possibly differences in mosquito mortality according to infection status. To account for these various mechanisms, we present a mechanistic mathematical model, which explicitly models key processes at the parasite, mosquito and observational scales. Fitting this model to experimental data, we find greater variation in the EIP than previously thought: we estimated the range between EIP10 and EIP90 (at 27°C) as 4.5 days compared to 0.9 days using existing statistical methods. This pattern holds over the range of study temperatures included in the dataset. Increasing temperature from 21°C to 34°C decreased the EIP50 from 16.1 to 8.8 days. Our work highlights the importance of mechanistic modelling of sporogony to (1) improve estimates of malaria transmission under different environmental conditions or disease control programs and (2) evaluate novel interventions that target the mosquito life stages of the parasite.
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