ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis2021
An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.
Article in Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 30 citations in OpenAlex.
- Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- Impediments to Progress Toward Polio Eradication During 2014-2024: Effectively Addressing the Current Challenges.Vaccines · 2025Review
- Achievements and Obstacles in the Late Phase of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.Deutsches Arzteblatt international · 2025Review
- Optimum study of fractional polio model with exponential decay kernel.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Polio Eradication in Pakistan: Innovation and Digitalization-the Key to Crossing the Finish Line.Public health reviews · 2024Article
- Article
- Towards the sustainable elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in Côte d'Ivoire using an integrated approach.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- The impact of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on global polio eradication.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Health economic analysis of vaccine options for the polio eradication endgame: 2022-2036.Expert review of vaccines · 2022Article
- Polio eradication: what kind of world do we want?The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Polio health economics: assessing the benefits and costs of polio, non-polio, and integrated activities of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.Gates open research · 2022Article
- We should not dismiss the possibility of eradicating COVID-19: comparisons with smallpox and polio.BMJ global health · 2021Article
- Modeling Poliovirus Surveillance and Immunization Campaign Quality Monitoring Costs for Pakistan and Afghanistan for 2019-2023.Open forum infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Modeling and Managing Poliovirus Risks: We are Where we are….Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019-2029.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- No Role for Reintroducing OPV into the United States with Respect to Controlling COVID-19 [Response to the letter to the Editor by Chumakov et al.].Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Health Economic Analysis of Antiviral Drugs in the Global Polio Eradication Endgame.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision MakingArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Despite a strong global commitment, polio eradication efforts continue now more than 30 years after the 1988 World Health Assembly resolution that established the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), and 20 years after the original target of the year 2000. Prior health economic analyses estimated incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 40-50 billion in 2008 U.S. dollars (US$2008, equivalent to 48-59 billion US$2019), assuming the achievement of polio eradication by 2012. Given the delays in achieving polio eradication and increased costs, we performed an updated economic analysis of the GPEI using an updated integrated global model, and considering the GPEI trajectory as of the beginning of 2020. Applying similar methods and assuming eradication achievement in 2023, we estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 28 billion US$2019, which falls below the prior estimate. Delays in achieving polio eradication combined with the widescale introduction of relatively expensive inactivated poliovirus vaccine significantly increased the costs of the GPEI and make it less cost-effective, although the GPEI continues to yield expected incremental net benefits at the global level when considered over the time horizon of 1988-2029. The overall health and financial benefits of the GPEI will depend on whether and when the GPEI can achieve its goals, when eradication occurs, the valuation method applied, and the path dependence of the actions taken. Reduced expected incremental net benefits of the GPEI and the substantial economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic pose large financial risks for the GPEI.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.