ArticleNature communications2021
Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 64 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
64 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Projected impact of climate change on human health in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.BMJ global health · 2024Pooled it
- Comparative analysis of daily and hourly temperature variability in association with all-cause and cardiorespiratory mortality in 45 US cities.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2022Pooled it
- The dividend period of climate change-related mortality in China is coming to an end.Fundamental research · 2026Article
- Article
- Multi-hazard exposure and vulnerability drive rising agricultural risk in global breadbasket regions.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Nationwide analysis of cases of emergency transport due to heatstroke in Japan from 2010 to 2024.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Future temperature-related mortality in various climate change and adaptation scenarios in Finland.International journal of biometeorology · 2026Article
- Global historical population exposure to heating and cooling degree days.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Disentangling climate hazards from demographic change in climate-health projections.Nature medicine · 2026Article
- A Global High-Resolution Comprehensive Heat Indices Dataset from 1950 to 2024.Scientific data · 2026Article
- Quantifying the temperature-related fraction of hand, foot, and mouth disease using distributed lag non-linear models: lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic period.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Heat Exposure Changes Lung Function, Biomarkers of Airway Injury, and Airway Microbiota: A Randomized, Crossover Trial.Environment & health (Washington, D.C.) · 2025Article
- Semi-confined terrain concurrently amplifies heat stress and ozone pollution in Northern China.iScience · 2025Article
- Utilizing network optimization to mitigate rising greenspace exposure inequalities in Chinese cities from 2000 to 2050.Environmental science and ecotechnology · 2025Article
- Future temperature-related mortality in Latin American cities under climate change and population scenarios.Environment international · 2025Article
- Projections of Heat-Related Mortality in Chinese Cities: The Roles of Climate Change, Urbanization, Socioeconomic Adaptation, and Landscape-Level Strategies.Environmental health perspectives · 2025Article
- High temperature and cardiovascular disease in Australia under different climatic, demographic, and adaptive scenarios.European heart journal · 2025Article
- The Imperative for Hazard- and Place-Specific Assessment of Heat Vulnerability.Environmental health perspectives · 2025Article
- Article
- Spatial Variation in the Association between Extreme Heat Events and Warm Season Pediatric Acute Care Utilization: A Small-Area Assessment of Multiple Health Conditions and Environmental Justice Implications in California (2005-2019).Environmental health perspectives · 2025Article
4 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
15 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2-3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4-4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5-9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0-1.2%) and 3.6% (-0.5-7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.