ArticleHealth research policy and systems2021
Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability.
Article in Health research policy and systems, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
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- Life expectancy, long-term care demand and dynamic financing mechanism simulation: an empirical study of Zhejiang Pilot, China.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- Population ageing and sustainability of healthcare financing in China.Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E · 2023Review
- Psychological Distress and Concerns of In-Home Older People Living with Cancer and Their Impact on Supportive Care Needs: An Observational Survey.Current oncology (Toronto, Ont.) · 2023Observational
- Prevalence and sociodemographic determinants of selected noncommunicable diseases among the general population of Cyprus: A large population-based cross-sectional study.Chronic diseases and translational medicine · 2023Article
- Assessing the agreement between the partners at care transitions measure and the care transitions measure for elderly patients with chronic diseases.BMC health services research · 2023Article
- The cost of aging: Economic growth perspectives for Europe.PloS one · 2023Article
- Health and economic outcomes of 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine compared to 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine strategies for adults in Greece.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Tracing Time Trends of Births in Greece.Cureus · 2023Article
- Small-Area Geographic and Socioeconomic Inequalities in Colorectal Cancer in Cyprus.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- The Lifestyle Profile of Individuals with Cardiovascular and Endocrine Diseases in Cyprus: A Hierarchical, Classification Analysis.Nutrients · 2022Article
- Future health spending forecast in leading emerging BRICS markets in 2030: health policy implications.Health research policy and systems · 2022Article
- Healthcare system development in the Middle East and North Africa region: Challenges, endeavors and prospective opportunities.Frontiers in public health · 2022Review
- Clinical Epidemiology, Treatment Outcome and Mortality Rate of Newly Diagnosed Immune Thrombocytopenia in Adult Multicentre Study in Malaysia.Journal of blood medicine · 2022Article
- Equity across the cancer care continuum for culturally and linguistically diverse migrants living in Australia: a scoping review.Globalization and health · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundWith an increasing aging population and a lower ratio between the active and the dependent population, population aging is considered a global social and health challenge, associated with increased demand in health care needs and social pension. This study projects the Greek and Cypriot population to guide future planning of social and health policies and services.
methodsThe total population by sex and age groups, Total Fertility Rate (TFR), life-expectancies at birth and Potential Support Ratio PSR (persons aged 20-64 years per person 65+ years) are projected probabilistically by the year 2100 using Bayesian hierarchical models and United Nations' population data for Greece and Cyprus from the period of 1950 to 2015.
resultsThe TFR is projected to be around 1.5 children per woman in 2050 and around 1.75 in 2100 for both countries, with all values of prediction intervals being around or below the Replacement level fertility. PSR is expected to decrease remarkably and be 2.5 in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100 for Cyprus while for Greece it will be around 1.5 for both years 2050 and 2100. Life-expectancy is expected to increase to 84 years for men and 87 years for women in 2050 and 90 years for men and 94 years for women in 2100 for both countries. The share of the population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase in both countries and be the one third of the population by 2100.
conclusionsGreece and Cyprus will acquire the characteristics of an aging population, putting a significance pressure on the social and health systems of both countries. Both countries should reform their social and health policy agenda to confront population aging and its consequence. They should adopt fertility incentives and family policies to increase fertility and migrants' inclusiveness policies to improve the demographic structure and the economic activity. The national health systems should promote prevention strategies at the primary health sector and promote healthy aging while health research policy should aim to promote research in innovative technologies and digital health to create assistive technology for self-care and greater independence of older people.
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