ArticlePancreatology : official journal of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP) ... [et al.]2021
Validation of the ENDPAC model: Identifying new-onset diabetics at risk of pancreatic cancer.
Article in Pancreatology : official journal of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP) ... [et al.], 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04662879 (A Prospective Study of Algorithm-based Screening in Patients With Glycemically Defined New Onset Diabetes to Evaluate Risk for and Earlier Detection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma; Early Detection Initiative), which is not on this map. Cited by 28 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
A Prospective Study of Algorithm-based Screening in Patients With Glycemically Defined New Onset Diabetes to Evaluate Risk for and Earlier Detection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma; Early Detection Initiative (EDI) for Pancreatic Cancer
Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 39 citations in OpenAlex.
- Performance of risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer in patients with new-onset diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in oncology · 2026Pooled it
- Clinical Prediction Models Incorporating Blood Test Trend for Cancer Detection: Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Critical Appraisal.JMIR cancer · 2025Pooled it
- Risk factors and early prediction of pancreatic cancer among patients with diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2025Pooled it
- Early Detection Initiative: A randomized controlled trial of algorithm-based screening in patients with new onset hyperglycemia and diabetes for early detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.Contemporary clinical trials · 2022Trial
- The use of blood test trends in cancer detection: a scoping review.Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2026Review
- REG4 serves as a prognostic biomarker for pancreatic cancer with long-standing diabetes mellitus by modulating chemoresistance.Translational oncology · 2026Article
- New-Onset Diabetes and Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: Implications for Early Recognition and Clinical Management.Diabetes/metabolism research and reviews · 2026Review
- Decision support tools for pancreatic cancer detection: external validation in Australian primary care - a retrospective cohort study.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026Article
- Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in Glycemically Defined New-Onset Diabetes: A Prospective Cohort Study.Gastroenterology · 2026Observational
- Unusual Manifestations of Primary Pancreatic Neoplasia.Cancers · 2025Review
- Prediction of Pancreatic Cancer Risk in Patients with New-Onset Diabetes.Visceral medicine · 2025Review
- Role of diabetes-related inflammation in pancreatic cancer evaluated by aptamer-based detection of circulating tumor cells in a streptozotocin-induced Panc02-transplanted murine model.Annals of hepato-biliary-pancreatic surgery · 2025Article
- Assessing NODM Patients for Early PDAC Diagnosis: Incidence of NODM Before PDAC Diagnosis and Subsequent PDAC Risk.Cancer medicine · 2025Article
- Combining genetic and non-genetic factors to predict the risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with new-onset diabetes mellitus.BMC medicine · 2025Article
- Can AI Be Useful in the Early Detection of Pancreatic Cancer in Patients with New-Onset Diabetes?Biomedicines · 2025Review
- The exposome as a target for primary prevention and a tool for early detection of pancreatic cancer.Best practice & research. Clinical gastroenterology · 2025Review
- New-onset diabetes as an emerging risk group for early detection of pancreatic cancer: current evidence, clinical challenge, and future directions.Frontiers in gastroenterology (Lausanne, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Pancreatic Cancer: A Review of Risk Factors.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Article
- Accuracy of the END-PAC Model in Predicting the Risk of Developing Pancreatic Cancer in Patients with New-Onset Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Biomedicines · 2023Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundPatients with new-onset diabetes are known to be at a higher risk of developing pancreatic cancer. The Enriching New-Onset Diabetes for Pancreatic Cancer (ENDPAC) model was recently developed to identify new-onset diabetics with this higher risk. Further validation is needed before the ENDPAC model is implemented as part of a screening program to identify pancreatic cancer.
methodsA retrospective case-control study was performed; a cohort of patients with new-onset diabetes was identified using hemoglobin A1c. Patients were scored by the ENDPAC model and then divided based on whether pancreatic cancer was diagnosed after the diagnosis of diabetes. The performance of the model was assessed globally and at different cutoffs.
resultsThere were 6254 controls and 48 cases of pancreatic cancer. Bivariate analysis showed that patients with pancreatic cancer lost weight before diagnosis while controls gained weight (-0.93 kg/m2 vs. 0.45 kg/m2, p < 0.00∗). Cases had a more significant increase in their HbA1C from one year before (1.3% vs. 0.82%, p = 0.02). Smoking and pancreatitis rates were higher in cases compared to controls (p < 0.00∗). The area under the curve (AUC) of the ENDPAC model was 0.72. A score >1 was the optimal cutoff. At this cutoff, the sensitivity was 56%, specificity was 75%, and pancreatic cancer prevalence increased from 0.78% at baseline to 1.7%.
conclusionThe ENDPAC model was validated in an independent cohort of patients with new-onset diabetes.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.